Telavi’s recent 1-2 loss to Sioni leaves the home side looking to regain confidence, while Samtredia’s four-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-0 triumph over Odishi 1919, fuels their optimism. The model therefore deems a Telavi victory the clear favourite, assigning a 64% chance of a home win, a 27% draw probability, and a 10% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.0, with the most probable total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Telavi, carrying a 20% probability. Telavi averages 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Samtredia’s away form suggests a modest scoring output against this tier. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Home +2 handicap (98.0%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Telavi win
63.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia win
9.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.06
0.81
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.31
0.56
0.89
1.57
1.86
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.92
1.83
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samtredia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.93
1.07
1.44
1.56
vs Stronger (29)
1.69
1.38
2.00
1.15
1.44
1.56
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
60.5%
Under 1.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.5%
Under 2.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.4%
Under 3.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
29.6%
No
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
20.0%
2-0
16.3%
0-0
14.4%
1-1
10.4%
3-0
8.4%
2-1
7.3%
0-1
5.1%
3-1
3.8%
Telavi goals ↓
Samtredia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
5.1%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
1
20%
10%
2.1%
0.3%
0.0%
2
16%
7.3%
1.7%
0.2%
0.0%
3
8.4%
3.8%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
4
3.3%
1.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telavi goals (down), columns = Samtredia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Telavi is 0.50 points better than Samtredia in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Telavi is 1.00 goals worse than Samtredia in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Telavi is 1.12 goals better than Samtredia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Telavi or Draw
90.5%
Avg Implied -
64%
27%
10%
covers Telavi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Telavi or Samtredia
73.4%
Avg Implied -
64%
27%
10%
covers Telavi + Samtredia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Samtredia
36.1%
Avg Implied -
64%
27%
10%
covers Draw + Samtredia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Telavi over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Telavi, so a minus line means Telavi give that many goals of a start and Samtredia receive them. At -1, Telavi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Telavi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Telavi)
Telavi -2
15.3%
Draw -2
20.4%
Samtredia +2
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Telavi)
Telavi -1
35.7%
Draw -1
28.2%
Samtredia +1
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Telavi)
Telavi +1
90.5%
Draw +1
7.5%
Samtredia -1
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Telavi)
Telavi +2
98.0%
Draw +2
1.7%
Samtredia -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.38
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.75
0.22
0.56
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.67
0.67
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samtredia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (29)
1.00
0.59
1.15
0.38
0.88
0.75
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.5%
Under 0.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.8%
Under 1.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.7%
Under 2.5
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.69
0.25
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.17
0.17
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samtredia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.79
0.85
0.77
0.56
0.81
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.8%
Under 0.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.3%
Under 1.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
Under 2.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gareji
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili