Telavi’s defensive solidity is the story heading into the Erovnuli Liga 2 clash. Their home form shows a tidy 0.83 goals conceded per match, while they average 1.08 goals scored against teams of similar strength. Shturmi, on the road, has been less efficient, conceding 1.4 goals per game and scoring only 0.93 against comparable opposition. The model favours a Telavi victory, with a 57% chance of winning, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 10% chance of an away win. The expected total of 1.5 goals points to a tight affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, a 25.1% probability. The model’s selections echo the low-scoring narrative: Under 7.5 (100%), Away under 3.5 goals (100%), Under 6.5 (99.9%), Under 5.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (99.5%), Home +2 handicap (98.4%), Under 4.5 (98.0%), and Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%). Telavi’s unbeaten run of five games, capped by a 1-0 win over Merani Martvili, gives them confidence, while Shturmi, fresh from a 0-1 loss to Samtredia, will need to tighten their defence to avoid a narrow defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Telavi win
59.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shturmi win
9.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.06
0.81
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.31
0.56
0.89
1.57
1.86
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.92
1.83
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.07
1.07
0.86
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.00
1.00
1.15
0.85
0.87
1.13
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.2%
Under 1.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
Under 2.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
8.2%
Under 3.5
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
21.9%
No
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
24.3%
0-0
20.5%
2-0
16.2%
1-1
9.6%
3-0
6.9%
0-1
5.9%
2-1
5.6%
3-1
2.4%
Telavi goals ↓
Shturmi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
21%
5.9%
1.2%
0.1%
0.0%
1
24%
9.6%
1.5%
0.2%
0.0%
2
16%
5.6%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
3
6.9%
2.4%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
4
2.2%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telavi goals (down), columns = Shturmi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Telavi is 1.12 points better than Shturmi in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Telavi is 0.38 goals better than Shturmi in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Telavi is 0.75 goals better than Shturmi in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Telavi or Draw
91.0%
Avg Implied -
60%
31%
9%
covers Telavi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Telavi or Shturmi
68.9%
Avg Implied -
60%
31%
9%
covers Telavi + Shturmi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shturmi
40.1%
Avg Implied -
60%
31%
9%
covers Draw + Shturmi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Telavi over/under 0.5
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 3.5
Over
0.0%
Under
100.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Telavi, so a minus line means Telavi give that many goals of a start and Shturmi receive them. At -1, Telavi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Telavi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Telavi)
Telavi -2
10.9%
Draw -2
18.7%
Shturmi +2
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Telavi)
Telavi -1
29.5%
Draw -1
30.3%
Shturmi +1
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Telavi)
Telavi +1
91.0%
Draw +1
7.5%
Shturmi -1
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Telavi)
Telavi +2
98.5%
Draw +2
1.3%
Shturmi -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.38
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.75
0.22
0.56
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.67
0.67
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.43
0.77
0.23
0.53
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.69
0.25
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.17
0.17
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.62
0.33
0.53
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Telavi clean sheet
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili