Telavi’s recent loss to Sioni has left them looking to regain confidence, but the model still favours a home win, giving the team a 63% chance of triumph. The probability of a draw sits at 27% while an away victory is only 10%. The expected total of 1.9 goals translates to an average of about two goals, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 for Telavi at 20.5%. Telavi’s home form shows they score 0.56 goals per game and concede 0.89 against stronger opponents, whereas Sioni’s away record against weaker sides yields 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (98.5%), Home +2 handicap (98.0%), Under 4.5 (95.2%) and Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Telavi win
60.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni win
10.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.06
0.81
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.31
0.56
0.89
1.57
1.86
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.92
1.83
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.60
1.47
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.74
1.30
1.73
1.45
1.75
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.86
1.25
1.50
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.9%
Under 1.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
29.9%
Under 2.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.7%
Under 3.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
29.5%
No
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
20.4%
0-0
15.8%
2-0
15.4%
1-1
11.0%
3-0
7.4%
2-1
7.2%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
3.5%
Telavi goals ↓
Sioni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
5.9%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
1
20%
11%
2.3%
0.4%
0.0%
2
15%
7.2%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
3
7.4%
3.5%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
4
2.7%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telavi goals (down), columns = Sioni goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Telavi is 0.50 points better than Sioni in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Telavi is 0.38 goals worse than Sioni in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Telavi is 1.00 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Telavi or Draw
89.2%
Avg Implied -
61%
29%
11%
covers Telavi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Telavi or Sioni
71.4%
Avg Implied -
61%
29%
11%
covers Telavi + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sioni
39.4%
Avg Implied -
61%
29%
11%
covers Draw + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Telavi over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Telavi, so a minus line means Telavi give that many goals of a start and Sioni receive them. At -1, Telavi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Telavi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Telavi)
Telavi -2
12.9%
Draw -2
19.2%
Sioni +2
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Telavi)
Telavi -1
32.1%
Draw -1
28.4%
Sioni +1
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Telavi)
Telavi +1
89.2%
Draw +1
8.5%
Sioni -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Telavi)
Telavi +2
97.7%
Draw +2
2.0%
Sioni -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.38
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.75
0.22
0.56
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.67
0.67
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.61
0.73
0.64
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.69
0.25
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.17
0.17
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.70
1.00
0.82
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.14
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gareji
Samtredia
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili