Telstar enter the match after a shaky five-game run that ended with a 1-3 loss to Sparta Rotterdam, while Ajax arrive unbeaten in their last five, having edged FC Sion 4-2. The model therefore deems Ajax the clear favourite, reflected in a 64% chance of an away win, 20% chance of a draw and 15% chance of a home win. The predicted outcome is an Ajax victory, with the most likely scoreline 1-2, a 9.7% probability. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively encounter, and the most probable total of three goals carries a 22% chance.
Telstar’s home form shows they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded against stronger opposition, whereas Ajax’s away form boasts 2.33 goals scored and only 1.25 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s suggested picks include an almost certain Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), an Under 7.5 (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (94.4%), Away +2 handicap (94.3%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.4%), each with its respective edge percentage.
Results analysis
The recent form narrative fits the outcome: Telstar’s last five included two straight defeats before the 0-4 loss, while Ajax continued a three-game winning streak. The model’s favourite, an Ajax win with a 65% probability, proved correct as the final score was 0-4, confirming the away victory. Every suggested pick was settled. The Home under 2.5 HT goals, hit with 98.4%, and the Under 7.5, hit at 97.8%, were both accurate, as were the Home under 3.5 goals at 97.7% and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2%. The Under 6.5, hit at 94.5%, and the Away +2 handicap, hit at 94.4%, also matched the result. The Away under 2.5 HT goals, hit at 94.3%, and the Away under 2.5 2H goals, missed at 92.0%, were the only selections that did not.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Telstar win✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 6.05
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
6.50
Pinnacle
6.47
1xBet
6.43
Betano
6.40
10Bet
6.40
Draw✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied 18.6% · @ 5.06
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.35
Pinnacle
5.34
Betano
5.30
Bet365
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Ajax win✓ Hit
64.5%
Avg Implied 65.8% · @ 1.43
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.47
Dafabet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.43
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Telstar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.50
1.79
1.43
1.56
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
1.62
1.43
1.57
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (17)
2.00
1.41
2.14
1.29
1.90
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.37
2.27
1.27
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
2.17
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (24)
2.17
1.17
2.38
1.15
1.91
1.18
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
@ 1.08-1.3%
Under 1.5
14.3%
@ 7.24+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Pinnacle
7.58
BetVictor
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.3%
@ 1.32-5.7%
Under 2.5
34.7%
@ 3.25+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Unibet
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.3%
@ 1.86-7.6%
Under 3.5
56.7%
@ 1.93+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
SBO
1.89
Betano
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
1.98
Unibet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.6%
@ 1.46-4.2%
No
40.4%
@ 2.57+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
No
Betfair
2.70
William Hil
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.7%@ 8.05+4.1%
1-1
9.3%@ 10.06+4.8%
0-2
9.2%@ 9.81+4.6%
1-3
7.5%@ 9.58+2.8%
0-1
7.2%@ 11.55+3.2%
0-3
7.1%@ 11.23+3.1%
2-2
5.1%@ 12.99+1.7%
2-1
4.5%@ 17.03+1.8%
Telstar goals ↓
Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
7.2%
9.2%
7.1%
4.1%
1
2.8%
9.3%
9.7%
7.5%
4.3%
2
1.9%
4.5%
5.1%
4.0%
2.3%
3
0.7%
1.6%
1.8%
1.4%
0.8%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telstar goals (down), columns = Ajax goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Telstar is 0.58 points worse than Ajax in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Telstar is 0.34 goals worse than Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Telstar is 0.48 goals worse than Ajax in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Telstar is 11.3 percentage points worse than Ajax in terms of average possession (45% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Telstar
For 3.7 · Against 8.2 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
For 8.0 · Against 3.1 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.1 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Telstar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.5
10.7
3.1
3.0
3.3
22.4
22.5
22.4
vs Stronger (16)
10.7
9.7
11.4
3.2
2.9
3.6
19.1
17.7
20.1
vs Similar (33)
10.6
10.8
10.3
3.0
2.9
3.1
24.0
24.4
23.6
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
12.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
59%
58%
60%
36%
21%
50%
51%
58%
44%
% under line
41%
42%
40%
64%
79%
50%
49%
42%
56%
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.4
3.6
3.2
3.9
21.8
23.5
20.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
9.5
10.0
9.0
3.9
3.3
4.4
25.1
25.4
24.7
vs Weaker (36)
9.8
8.7
10.9
3.5
3.2
3.7
20.6
22.8
18.4
% over line
50%
40%
60%
46%
36%
56%
54%
68%
40%
% under line
50%
60%
40%
54%
64%
44%
46%
32%
60%
This opponent (Telstar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.4
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Feyenoord
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
26.7
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.0
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Twente
20.8
Groningen
20.7
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
66.5%
@ 1.56+7.3%
Under 9.5
33.5%
@ 2.27-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Under
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.31
Betfair
2.30
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.5%
@ 2.19-1.6%
Under 3.5
59.5%
@ 1.59+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.22
Unibet
2.05
Under
Unibet
1.66
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
43.9%
@ 1.80-6.5%
Under 21.5
56.1%
@ 1.83+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.71
Under
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.80
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Telstar or Draw✗ Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.74
Edge
+1.2%
15%
20%
65%
covers Telstar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.84
Betano
2.82
BetVictor
2.80
Telstar or Ajax✓ Hit
79.6%
Avg Implied 81.9% · @ 1.15
Edge
-2.3%
15%
20%
65%
covers Telstar + Ajax
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Draw or Ajax✓ Hit
84.9%
Avg Implied 83.8% · @ 1.12
Edge
+1.0%
15%
20%
65%
covers Draw + Ajax
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
William Hil
1.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Telstar over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.2%
@ 1.36-2.8%
Under
34.8%
@ 2.91+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.90
Telstar over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.5%
@ 2.77-5.1%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.40+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.98
Marathonbet
2.82
1xBet
2.78
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Telstar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 6.82-4.5%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.07+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.40
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Telstar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 16.75-3.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Ajax over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.0%
@ 1.05+0.5%
Under
10.0%
@ 9.00-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.50
Betano
7.60
Ajax over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.1%
@ 1.31-4.0%
Under
32.9%
@ 3.23+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.59
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Ajax over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
40.6%
@ 1.98-6.6%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.77+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.30
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Ajax over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
20.2%
@ 3.53-6.2%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.27+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.20
Pinnacle
3.66
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Telstar, so a minus line means Telstar give that many goals of a start and Ajax receive them. At -1, Telstar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Telstar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Telstar)Actual: Ajax
Telstar -2
1.6%
@ 27.25-1.9%
Draw -2
4.1%
@ 13.88-2.7%
Ajax +2
94.4%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
22.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
9.50
Away
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Telstar)Actual: Ajax
Telstar -1
5.6%
@ 11.92-1.9%
Draw -1
9.5%
@ 7.38-2.6%
Ajax +1
84.9%
@ 1.11+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Handicap +1 (Telstar)Actual: Ajax
Telstar +1
35.5%
@ 2.69+2.2%
Draw +1
21.7%
@ 3.95-0.9%
Ajax -1
42.8%
@ 2.03-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.84
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Unibet
3.90
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Away
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Handicap +2 (Telstar)Actual: Ajax
Telstar +2
57.2%
@ 1.69+3.8%
Draw +2
19.4%
@ 4.43-1.0%
Ajax -2
23.4%
@ 3.44-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.20
Away
Superbet
3.85
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Telstar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.54
0.43
0.57
0.67
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.47
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.47
1.40
0.47
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
1.38
0.42
1.54
0.46
1.18
0.36
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.5%
@ 1.18-5.6%
Under 0.5
26.5%
@ 4.43+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.5%
@ 1.90-8.6%
Under 1.5
59.5%
@ 1.84+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.88
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 3.83-9.7%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.23+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Betano
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telstar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.27-4.1%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.58+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.26
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Telstar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 7.43-2.3%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.06+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Telstar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 19.75-3.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
55.0%
@ 1.43-10.3%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.70+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
10Bet
2.95
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Betano
2.67
Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 2.88-15.4%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.37+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
2.93
Betano
2.92
Marathonbet
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 6.89-7.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.07+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.70
1xBet
6.90
Unibet
6.75
Betano
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Telstar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.00
1.21
0.86
1.00
1.12
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.08
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (17)
1.41
0.94
1.43
0.71
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.87
0.80
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
0.79
0.75
0.85
0.69
0.73
0.82
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.0%
@ 1.10-2.1%
Under 0.5
17.0%
@ 6.27+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Under
1xBet
7.30
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
Betano
6.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.9%
@ 1.53-11.0%
Under 1.5
50.1%
@ 2.39+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
22.2%
@ 2.62-13.3%
Under 2.5
77.8%
@ 1.44+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.92
William Hil
2.75
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.57
Under
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telstar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.7%
@ 1.89+1.6%
Under
49.3%
@ 1.82-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.78
Telstar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 5.46-3.6%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.11+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Telstar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 14.00-3.9%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.1%
@ 1.27-8.1%
Under
34.9%
@ 3.47+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
Under
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.10
Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
24.3%
@ 2.21-17.7%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.60+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.12
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.48
Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
8.0%
@ 4.83-11.2%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.15+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.70
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.11
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
94.4%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.0%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.11
-
+11.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
90.0%
1.05
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.5%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.7%
1.08
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
84.9%
1.12
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
William Hil
1.12
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
84.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.1%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.37
+15.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.09
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
79.8%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+6.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
79.6%
1.15
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.44
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
+13.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
77.5%
1.26
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.22
-
-
+5.1%
-
Over 8.5 corners
77.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.60
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.48
+17.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
75.1%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
1.18
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
71.5%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
+5.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Telstar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rui Mendes33%
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Patrick Brouwer33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ronald Koeman Jr33%
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Rui Mendes0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Patrick Brouwer0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Patrick Brouwer33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Rui Mendes0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rui Mendes33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Abdelnour Soualhia0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Patrick Brouwer0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davy Klaassen57%
Tolu Arokodare50%
Julian Brandt43%
Mika Godts33%
Kasper Dolberg25%
Owen Wijndal25%
Marcos Leonardo25%
Anton Gaaei25%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Baas17%
Steven Berghuis14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Caio Henrique0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Youri Regeer0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucas Rosa40%
Youri Regeer29%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Aaron Bouwman25%
Davy Klaassen14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Marcos Leonardo12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Steven Berghuis0%
Maarten Paes0%
Tolu Arokodare0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Baas0%
Oscar Gloukh0%
Mika Godts0%
Dies Janse0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mika Godts67%
Steven Berghuis43%
Tolu Arokodare33%
Caio Henrique29%
Lucas Rosa20%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Regeer14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
Youri Baas0%
Anton Gaaei0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika Godts67%
Kasper Dolberg50%
Steven Berghuis43%
Marcos Leonardo38%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Tolu Arokodare17%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Regeer0%
Youri Baas0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Abdellah Ouazane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Telstar's squad is €165m less valuable than Ajax's (€8m vs €173m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Telstar's attack is €92m less valuable than Ajax's (€3m vs €95m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Telstar's midfield is €13m less valuable than Ajax's (€2m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Telstar's defence is €60m less valuable than Ajax's (€3m vs €63m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur