Telstar and Sparta Rotterdam face off in the Netherlands: Eredivisie, with the home side boasting a recent 3-game winning streak, having just defeated NEC Nijmegen 2-1. However, their opponents have struggled, losing their last 3 matches, including a 0-1 defeat to Feyenoord.
The model predicts Telstar to win at home, with a 51% chance of victory, closely followed by a 24% chance of a draw and 25% for Sparta Rotterdam to win. The expected total number of goals is 3.2, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.1% probability.
Telstar has scored an average of 2.57 goals at home, while conceding 1.43. In contrast, Sparta Rotterdam has averaged 0.89 goals when playing away against similar opponents, while conceding 1.67. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.9% probability, offering a 3% edge.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 (83.9%), with Telstar to win at home (51%), draw (24%), and Sparta Rotterdam to win (25%).
The away team, Sparta Rotterdam, pulled off a stunning upset with a 1-3 win over the home team, Telstar. This win extends their run of coming off a win, having previously defeated Telstar 3-1. The model's selection, a Home win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's selection was not the only one to miss the mark, as suggested picks Over 1.5 goals also MISSED, with a probability of 83.9%.
Telstar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.85 | 1.31 | 1.76 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 1.23 | 1.62 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.24 | 1.24 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 2.18 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Sparta Rotterdam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.53 | 1.31 | 1.19 | 1.36 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.48 | 1.39 | 1.62 | 1.15 | 1.30 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Sparta Rotterdam goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 11% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 4.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
Telstar
Sparta Rotterdam
Telstar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 22.3 | 22.2 | 22.4 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.7 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 19.1 | 17.7 | 20.1 |
| vs Similar (33) | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 23.6 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 12.0 | 12.0 | - | 6.0 | 6.0 | - | 27.0 | 27.0 | - |
| % over line | 57% | 57% | 58% | 36% | 22% | 48% | 51% | 57% | 46% |
| % under line | 43% | 43% | 42% | 64% | 78% | 52% | 49% | 43% | 54% |
Sparta Rotterdam| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 20.1 | 20.2 | 20.1 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 10.9 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 18.9 | 17.7 | 20.0 |
| vs Similar (36) | 10.8 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 20.6 | 21.1 | 20.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 62% | 62% | 62% | 52% | 50% | 54% | 38% | 31% | 46% |
| % under line | 38% | 38% | 38% | 48% | 50% | 46% | 62% | 69% | 54% |
Telstar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.71 | 0.41 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Sparta Rotterdam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.29 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Telstar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.93 | 1.23 | 0.77 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.47 | 0.82 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Sparta Rotterdam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.03 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.93 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.57 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 88.4% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +15.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 83.9% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | +3.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 83.1% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +14.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 8.5 corners | 76.9% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +5.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 76.4% | 1.39 | 1.49 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +10.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 70.7% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +14.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 1-0 |
Telstar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-4 |
Sparta Rotterdam| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 4.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 14.0 | 100% | 2.2 | 25% | 23.8 | 50% | 136 | 61 | 21 | 54 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 53% |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 10.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 25% | 17.5 | 25% | 280 | 106 | 60 | 115 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 61% |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 4.0 | 75% | 75% | 75% | 11.8 | 75% | 2.3 | 0% | 17.8 | 25% | 229 | 93 | 43 | 93 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 4 | Ajax | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 10.0 | 33% | 4.5 | 100% | 21.3 | 67% | 173 | 95 | 15 | 63 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 5 | GO Ahead Eagles | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.0 | 50% | 2.0 | 0% | 17.2 | 25% | 22 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 49% |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 11.8 | 50% | 3.0 | 25% | 17.0 | 0% | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 45% |
| 7 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 10.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 67% | 26.3 | 100% | 54 | 22 | 5 | 26 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 57% |
| 8 | Twente | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.5 | 0% | 16.7 | 0% | 87 | 34 | 13 | 39 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 9 | Excelsior | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 10.3 | 67% | 2.0 | 0% | 16.3 | 0% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 10 | Groningen | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 8.8 | 25% | 2.8 | 25% | 19.8 | 50% | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 50% |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 10.5 | 50% | 2.7 | 33% | 14.5 | 0% | 50 | 24 | 6 | 20 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 3.5 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 2.7 | 0% | 23.0 | 50% | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.3 | 67% | 20.0 | 50% | 21 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 14 | Telstar | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.3 | 67% | 3.0 | 50% | 26.7 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 45% |
| 15 | Willem II | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 9.0 | 33% | 2.0 | 0% | 19.3 | 33% | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 11.2 | 50% | 2.0 | 0% | 20.5 | 75% | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1.0 | 2.8 | - |
| 17 | Utrecht | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 10.8 | 75% | 4.7 | 67% | 29.5 | 100% | 61 | 33 | 14 | 15 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 47% |
| 18 | Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.8 | 75% | 1.7 | 0% | 20.5 | 25% | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 1.0 | 4.0 | - |