Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 38% for a Teuta victory, 30% for a draw and 33% for an Elbasani win. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% chance. Teuta, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.14 conceded, while Elbasani, on the road, scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6 against comparable teams. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (95.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 4.5 (89.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.1%) and Home under 2.5 goals (85.8%). Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, adding to the uncertainty.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Teuta Durrës win
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani win
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Teuta Durrës
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.10
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.10
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.9%
Under 2.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.4%
0-2
5.3%
Teuta Durrës goals ↓
AF Elbasani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
7.6%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.3%
14%
7.4%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.4%
8.8%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.5%
4.1%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Teuta Durrës goals (down), columns = AF Elbasani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Teuta Durrës is 0.53 points worse than AF Elbasani in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Teuta Durrës is 0.47 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Teuta Durrës is 0.08 goals better than AF Elbasani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Teuta Durrës or Draw
69.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Teuta Durrës + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës or AF Elbasani
71.2%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Teuta Durrës + AF Elbasani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AF Elbasani
59.2%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + AF Elbasani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Teuta Durrës, so a minus line means Teuta Durrës give that many goals of a start and AF Elbasani receive them. At -1, Teuta Durrës must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Teuta Durrës win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Teuta Durrës)
Teuta Durrës -2
7.4%
Draw -2
12.5%
AF Elbasani +2
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Teuta Durrës)
Teuta Durrës -1
19.9%
Draw -1
20.9%
AF Elbasani +1
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Teuta Durrës)
Teuta Durrës +1
69.5%
Draw +1
17.4%
AF Elbasani -1
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Teuta Durrës)
Teuta Durrës +2
86.9%
Draw +2
8.9%
AF Elbasani -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Teuta Durrës
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.33
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Teuta Durrës
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani
Tirana