Pythia gives Teuta Durrës a 32% win probability against Partizani in the Albania: Superliga on 2023-04-01, with 34% for the draw and 34% for Partizani. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (15.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (86%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Partizani seized a 0-2 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite of a draw that the model had pegged at 34%. The prediction was wrong, as the game finished with an away win. Teuta Durrës, unbeaten in their last five, failed to convert their form into points, while Partizani, fresh from a defeat, capitalised on the opportunity. The model’s sole suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, hit with a probability of 86.4%. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result of an away win, confirming the upset and the accuracy of the single under-goals selection.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Teuta Durrës win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partizani win✓ Hit
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Teuta Durrës
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
1.15
0.83
0.83
1.00
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.40
0.78
1.11
1.09
1.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
46% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.00
1.27
1.00
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.22
0.78
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
1.00
1.80
0.60
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
29% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.7%
Under 1.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.3%
Under 2.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.6%
Under 3.5
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.4%
No
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.4%
1-1
14.9%
0-1
12.7%
1-0
12.2%
0-2 ✓
7.0%
1-2
6.8%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
Teuta Durrës goals ↓
Partizani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
13%
7.0%
2.3%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
6.5%
6.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Teuta Durrës goals (down), columns = Partizani goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partizani
1.86
Tirana
1.86
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.44
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.39
Laci
1.33
Teuta Durrës
1.33
FK Kukesi
1.25
Erzeni Shijak
1.11
Bylis
1.06
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.97
Teuta Durrës is 0.53 points worse than Partizani in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Partizani
1.56
Tirana
1.56
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Laci
1.25
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.08
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.92
Bylis
0.86
FK Kukesi
0.86
Kastrioti Krujë
0.72
Teuta Durrës is 0.64 goals worse than Partizani in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.89
Tirana
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.03
Partizani
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.11
Bylis
1.17
Laci
1.28
Erzeni Shijak
1.32
Kastrioti Krujë
1.36
Teuta Durrës is 0.08 goals worse than Partizani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Teuta Durrës
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.54
0.33
0.42
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.60
0.22
0.56
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
65% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.50
0.67
0.40
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.44
1.20
0.40
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
54% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Teuta Durrës
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.42
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.80
0.56
0.56
0.55
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.47
0.60
0.80
0.56
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
0.60
0.20
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
FK (20)
€1m
Teuta Durrës and Partizani have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Teuta Durrës and Partizani have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (4)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Teuta Durrës and Partizani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Teuta Durrës and Partizani have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tirana
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Vllaznia Shkodër
Laci
FK Kukesi
Erzeni Shijak
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Korabi Peshkopi