Teuta Durrës’ defensive record at home shows they concede just under a goal per game, while Partizani’s away form mirrors that, giving both sides a tight, low-scoring environment. The model therefore projects a narrow 2-goal match, with the most probable scoreline 0-0 at 14.9%. The single most likely outcome is an away win, with a 38% chance for Partizani, 33% for a draw and 28% for Teuta. The expected total goals is 2.0, matching the model’s 2-goal expectation.
Teuta’s home scoring average is 1.09 and conceding 0.91 against similar opposition, while Partizani scores 1.08 and concedes 1.0 on the road. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, carrying an 85.8% probability. No other picks are listed. The match remains a tight affair, with Partizani favoured to edge out a win.
Results analysis
The match saw Partizani extend their recent run, finishing the game 0-1 to secure an away win, a result that matched the model’s prediction. The model had named Partizani the favourite with a 38% probability, and it proved correct. The most likely scoreline was 0-1, and the total goals of 2 fell within the model’s expected range. The single suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit with an 85.8% probability. Teuta Durrës, unbeaten in their last five, could not break the stalemate, while Partizani, coming off a defeat, turned the tide to claim the victory. The model’s selections largely came in, confirming its accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Teuta Durrës win✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partizani win✓ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Teuta Durrës
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.17
1.07
0.67
1.07
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.46
1.09
0.91
1.23
1.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.93
2.14
0.86
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.39
0.83
1.73
0.64
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.71
1.29
3.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.7%
Under 1.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.3%
Under 2.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.2%
Under 3.5
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.9%
No
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
14.9%
1-1
14.7%
0-1 ✓
13.5%
1-0
10.9%
0-2
8.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
6.1%
2-0
5.5%
Teuta Durrës goals ↓
Partizani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
14%
8.1%
3.0%
0.8%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
5.5%
6.1%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
3
1.7%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Teuta Durrës goals (down), columns = Partizani goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.76
Partizani
1.74
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Teuta Durrës
1.39
Tirana
1.39
Dinamo Tirana
1.31
Laci
1.27
Flamurtari
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
0.89
FK Kukesi
0.75
Teuta Durrës is 0.35 points worse than Partizani in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.37
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.37
Dinamo Tirana
1.17
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Skenderbeu Korce
1.05
Laci
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.86
Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Teuta Durrës is 0.37 goals worse than Partizani in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Partizani
0.79
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.97
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Dinamo Tirana
1.19
Tirana
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.56
Erzeni Shijak
1.58
Teuta Durrës is 0.18 goals worse than Partizani in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 0.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Teuta Durrës
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.53
0.20
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.67
0.45
0.27
0.54
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
1.29
0.36
0.44
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.26
0.91
0.18
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.71
2.67
1.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Teuta Durrës
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.79
0.64
0.64
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.57
0.82
0.45
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
FK (20)
€1m
Teuta Durrës and Partizani have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Teuta Durrës and Partizani have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
FK (4)
€0m
Teuta Durrës and Partizani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
Teuta Durrës and Partizani have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →