The New Saints are the clear favourite, a 80% chance of victory that the model flags as the most likely result. Their home form is blistering: an average of 3.92 goals scored and only 0.42 conceded against weaker opposition, while Barry Town’s away record shows five straight wins but against stronger teams. This mismatch explains the high home win probability and the model’s 87.8% confidence in an over 1.5-goal outcome. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a busy match, with the single most probable scoreline 2-0 at 11.3%. The model also picks a 79.8% chance of a home win. The draw and away win probabilities sit at 14% and 6% respectively. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 (87.8%) and Home win (79.8%). All figures are presented as percentages, with no other selections mentioned.
Results analysis
The New Saints continued their five-game winning run at home, extending a dominant form streak that saw them score 3-2 against Caernarfon Town. The model had picked a home win with an 80% probability, and the result matched the 4-0 victory, confirming the favourite’s accuracy. The predicted over 1.5 goals, at 87.8%, also hit as the match produced four goals. The model’s second selection, Home win at 79.8%, was correct as well. With a 14% chance of a draw and only 6% for Barry Town, the final score of 4-0 was well within the model’s forecast, reinforcing confidence in its predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
The New Saints win✓ Hit
79.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barry Town win✗ Miss
6.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
The New Saints
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
0.60
3.20
0.47
2.60
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (24)
3.46
0.42
3.92
0.42
3.00
0.42
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.60
1.20
1.47
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
6.00
2.00
6.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.50
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.3%
Under 2.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.9%
Under 3.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.3%
3-0
10.7%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
7.9%
4-0 ✓
7.5%
1-0
7.4%
1-1
6.5%
4-1
5.6%
The New Saints goals ↓
Barry Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
7.4%
6.5%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
2
11%
8.4%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
3
11%
7.9%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
4
7.5%
5.6%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = The New Saints goals (down), columns = Barry Town goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.44
Penybont
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.64
Barry Town
1.58
Caernarfon Town
1.49
Cardiff MET
1.41
Flint Town United
1.31
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.31
Bala Town
1.12
Briton Ferry
1.00
Newtown AFC
0.81
Aberystwyth Town
0.66
The New Saints is 0.86 points better than Barry Town in terms of average points per game (2.44 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.78
Penybont
1.75
Barry Town
1.73
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Flint Town United
1.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.29
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.27
Bala Town
1.15
Newtown AFC
1.12
Aberystwyth Town
0.88
The New Saints is 1.05 goals better than Barry Town in terms of goals scored per game (2.78 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.82
The New Saints
0.97
Penybont
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.09
Bala Town
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.35
Caernarfon Town
1.60
Barry Town
1.70
Flint Town United
1.94
Briton Ferry
2.03
Newtown AFC
2.03
Aberystwyth Town
2.22
The New Saints is 0.73 goals better than Barry Town in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
The New Saints
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.33
1.47
0.27
1.27
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.71
0.21
1.83
0.25
1.58
0.17
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
The New Saints
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.27
1.73
0.20
1.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.75
0.21
2.08
0.17
1.42
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
5.00
2.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.92
0.58
0.67
0.75
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
0.50
1.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
The New Saints
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
The New Saints's squad is €2m more valuable than Barry Town's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
The New Saints and Barry Town have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Barry Town have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
The New Saints and Barry Town have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Penybont
Haverfordwest County AFC
Caernarfon Town
Cardiff MET
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Flint Town United
Bala Town
Briton Ferry
Newtown AFC
Aberystwyth Town