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The New Saints vs Barry Town Result & Analysis

Date: 24/01/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 1-0
The New Saints
The New Saints
Vs
73%
16%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Barry Town
Barry Town
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The New Saints are the clear favourite, their 73% home-win probability reflecting a dominant 2.85 goals scored and only 0.92 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Barry Town’s away form shows 0.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded against stronger teams. This imbalance gives the model a 72.6% chance of a home win, the single most likely result. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 2-1 for the Saints, a 8.8% chance. The model also picks the over 1.5 (90.2%) and over 2.5 (73.7%) as selections, with the over 1.5 being the strongest edge. Home win probability sits at 73%, draw at 16%, and away win at 11%. The Saints’ recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-2 win over Caernarfon Town, and Barry Town’s five-game winning streak, including a 4-1 victory over Briton Ferry, underline the confidence in the Saints’ advantage.

Results analysis

The New Saints extended their five-game winning streak with a 1-0 victory over Barry Town, keeping the home side’s form narrative intact. The model had picked a home win with a 72.6% probability, and the outcome matched that expectation. The pre-match favourite was indeed the New Saints, and the model’s call was correct. The predicted total of 3.8 goals fell far short of the actual total of one, a clear under-performance. The model’s selections were: Over 1.5, probability 90.2%, missed; Over 2.5, probability 73.7%, missed; Home win, probability 72.6%, hit. All figures are reported exactly as supplied.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

The New Saints win✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barry Town win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W32W23L30W12L20W20W13L21W10WA·LLA24/10A·HAV01/11H·CAR07/11A·FLI14/11A·CAR21/11H·CAE28/11A·BRI09/12A·GAP31/12H·BAL06/01H·COL13/01
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.270.902.640.931.940.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.671.000.001.001.001.00
vs Weaker (27)2.440.892.850.922.070.86
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Barry TownBarry Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-641W00D60W40W11D40W10W12L13L51WA·COL01/11H·FLI08/11A·LLA21/11H·HAV28/11A·PEN09/12H·GRE13/12H·CAR26/12A·BRI31/12A·GAP03/01H·LLA13/01
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.132.140.641.941.56
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.000.000.004.00
vs Similar (27)2.071.112.310.691.861.50
vs Weaker (1)5.000.00--5.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%320%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.2%
Under 1.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.7%
Under 2.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
8.2%
3-0
7.7%
1-1
7.0%
4-1
5.7%
1-0 ✓
5.4%
4-0
5.4%
The New Saints goals ↓
Barry Town goals →
01234
02.8%1.7%1.2%0.4%0.1%
15.4%7.0%3.4%1.2%0.3%
28.3%8.8%4.7%1.7%0.4%
37.7%8.2%4.3%1.5%0.4%
45.4%5.7%3.0%1.1%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = The New Saints goals (down), columns = Barry Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
The New Saints is 1.08 points better than Barry Town in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
The New Saints is 1.20 goals better than Barry Town in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
The New Saints is 0.25 goals better than Barry Town in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W02L20W10W00D20W02L00D10WA·LLA24/10A·HAV01/11H·CAR07/11A·FLI14/11A·CAR21/11H·CAE28/11A·BRI09/12A·GAP31/12H·BAL06/01H·COL13/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.330.930.431.000.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.000.330.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (27)1.070.331.000.381.140.29
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Barry TownBarry Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D30W20W00D10W10W01L10W31WA·COL01/11H·FLI08/11A·LLA21/11H·HAV28/11A·PEN09/12H·GRE13/12H·CAR26/12A·BRI31/12A·GAP03/01H·LLA13/01
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.471.140.360.880.56
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (27)1.040.481.230.380.860.57
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W12L21W10W02L20W00D11D21W00DA·LLA24/10A·HAV01/11H·CAR07/11A·FLI14/11A·CAR21/11H·CAE28/11A·BRI09/12A·GAP31/12H·BAL06/01H·COL13/01
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.571.710.500.940.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.670.670.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (27)1.370.561.850.540.930.57
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Barry TownBarry Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D30W20W11D30W00D11D03L20WA·COL01/11H·FLI08/11A·LLA21/11H·HAV28/11A·PEN09/12H·GRE13/12H·CAR26/12A·BRI31/12A·GAP03/01H·LLA13/01
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.671.000.291.061.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (27)1.040.631.080.311.000.93
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.573.7%-------✗ Miss
Home win72.6%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
The New Saints's squad is €2m more valuable than Barry Town's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Barry Town have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
The New Saints and Barry Town have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Barry Town have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
TNS wins
2
Draws
0
BT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

The New Saints vs Barry Town · H/A from TNS
DateH/AGameScore
04/10/25HTNS Vs Barry Town4-0
30/08/25ABarry Town Vs TNS0-0
02/11/24ABarry Town Vs TNS1-4
14/09/24HTNS Vs Barry Town4-0
21/10/23ABarry Town Vs TNS2-6
26/08/23HTNS Vs Barry Town2-2

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/26HTNS Vs Colwyn Bay1-0
06/01/26HTNS Vs Bala Town2-1
31/12/25AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs TNS3-1
09/12/25ABriton Ferry Vs TNS0-2
28/11/25HTNS Vs Caernarfon Town2-0
21/11/25ACardiff MET Vs TNS2-1
14/11/25AFlint Town United Vs TNS0-3
07/11/25HTNS Vs Cardiff MET2-3
01/11/25AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs TNS2-3
24/10/25Allanelli AFC Vs TNS0-4

Barry TownBarry Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/26HBT Vs llanelli AFC5-1
03/01/26AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BT3-1
31/12/25ABriton Ferry Vs BT2-1
26/12/25HBT Vs Cardiff MET1-0
13/12/25HBT Vs Gresford Athletic4-0
09/12/25APenybont Vs BT1-1
28/11/25HBT Vs Haverfordwest County AFC4-0
21/11/25Allanelli AFC Vs BT0-6
08/11/25HBT Vs Flint Town United0-0
01/11/25AColwyn Bay Vs BT1-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW2.24
HomeWLWWW2.44
AwayWWLWL2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %72%80%64%
AVG goals3.383.763.00
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %64%76%52%
Over 3.5 %44%48%40%
Scored2.502.842.16
Conceded0.880.920.84
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet42%40%44%
Corners12.0011.0013.00
Cards3.503.004.00
Barry Town
Barry Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.64
HomeDWWWW1.84
AwayWWDLL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%40%
AVG goals3.363.083.64
Over 1.5 %82%76%88%
Over 2.5 %66%64%68%
Over 3.5 %52%48%56%
Scored1.962.001.92
Conceded1.401.081.72
BTTS62%56%68%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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