The New Saints are strong favourites to win at home against Briton Ferry, with a 64% chance according to the Pythia prediction model. This confidence stems from their opponent's weakness at home, particularly in scoring goals, as Briton Ferry have averaged just 1.29 goals away from their own ground. The model predicts a 21% chance of a draw and a 15% chance of an away win for Briton Ferry.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.3, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 2-1 win for The New Saints, with a probability of 9.8%.
The New Saints have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.33 goals at home and conceding just 0.5 goals. Briton Ferry, on the other hand, have averaged 1.29 goals away from home and conceded 1.29 goals in their away matches.
The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 84.7%. Other selections include the Home win, with a probability of 64%, and the Away win, with a probability of 15%. The Home win percentage is 64%, the Draw percentage is 21%, and the Away win percentage is 15%.
Results analysis
The win extends their run, with The New Saints securing a 1-0 victory over Briton Ferry, a result that saw them maintain their unbeaten home record. The final score was a far cry from the model's expectations, with the actual total goals well clear of the predicted 3.3. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 65%. The model's call was correct, as The New Saints emerged victorious. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals, with an 84.5% probability, ultimately missed, given the low-scoring nature of the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
The New Saints win✓ Hit
65.1%
Avg Implied 78.5% · @ 1.15
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Draw✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied 13.9% · @ 6.50
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
7.35
Dafabet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.70
Briton Ferry win✗ Miss
14.4%
Avg Implied 7.5% · @ 12.03
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
15.00
William Hil
15.00
Marathonbet
13.75
1xBet
13.70
Betfair
13.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
The New Saints
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
0.80
2.86
0.86
2.19
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
2.52
0.79
2.86
0.86
2.20
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.19
1.75
1.43
1.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.33
1.63
1.21
1.79
1.46
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.5%
@ 1.08-0.0%
Under 1.5
15.5%
@ 5.89+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Under
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.2%
@ 1.33-5.2%
Under 2.5
36.8%
@ 2.89+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.00
888Sport
3.00
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.97
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.0%
@ 1.89-7.9%
Under 3.5
59.0%
@ 1.80+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.02
Betano
2.02
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Betfair
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.3%
@ 1.89+8.9%
No
42.7%
@ 1.77-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
2.05
Superbet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
William Hil
1.95
10Bet
1.93
No
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Unibet
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.9%@ 6.67+3.2%
2-1
9.8%@ 9.04+4.9%
1-1
9.5%@ 12.39+5.9%
1-0 ✓
7.9%@ 9.18+3.0%
3-0
7.4%@ 6.88+0.9%
3-1
7.4%@ 9.24+2.6%
2-2
4.9%@ 22.44+2.9%
0-0
4.7%@ 20.11+2.5%
The New Saints goals ↓
Briton Ferry goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.0%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
1
7.9%
9.5%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.8%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.4%
7.4%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.2%
4.2%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = The New Saints goals (down), columns = Briton Ferry goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
The New Saints is 1.50 points better than Briton Ferry in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
The New Saints is 1.83 goals better than Briton Ferry in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
The New Saints is 1.17 goals better than Briton Ferry in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
The New Saints
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.00
0.43
1.12
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.10
0.34
1.00
0.43
1.20
0.27
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.75
0.69
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.56
0.79
0.57
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
The New Saints
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.47
1.86
0.43
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.41
0.45
1.86
0.43
1.00
0.47
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.44
1.06
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
1.07
0.43
1.21
0.77
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.5%
1.08
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
-0.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
The New Saints's squad is €2m more valuable than Briton Ferry's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Briton Ferry have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Briton Ferry have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Briton Ferry have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell