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The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town Result & Analysis

Date: 11/03/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 2-0
The New Saints
The New Saints
Vs
73%
16%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

The New Saints win✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-552W21W21W20W31W40W10W50W20W51WA·CAE26/12H·GAP31/12H·NEW04/01A·CAR14/01H·CAR01/02H·PEN08/02A·CAE11/02H·AIR15/02A·BAL21/02H·HAV08/03
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.971.103.650.882.081.38
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (5)4.201.206.000.331.502.50
vs Weaker (23)2.961.003.380.922.401.10
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W13L25L20W30W31W11D01L32W24LH·BAR14/12A·ABE21/12H·THE26/12A·BAL11/01H·FLI14/01A·BAL31/01H·HAV08/02H·THE11/02H·PEN22/02A·CAR08/03
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.831.532.271.401.40
vs Stronger (5)0.803.600.673.671.003.50
vs Similar (23)1.651.301.821.731.500.92
vs Weaker (2)1.003.501.004.001.003.00
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
76.9%
Under 2.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.5%
Under 3.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.4%
3-1
8.2%
2-0 ✓
7.4%
3-0
7.2%
1-1
6.4%
4-1
6.0%
4-0
5.2%
2-2
4.8%
The New Saints goals ↓
Caernarfon Town goals →
01234
02.3%1.4%1.1%0.4%0.1%
14.5%6.4%3.3%1.2%0.4%
27.4%8.4%4.8%1.8%0.5%
37.2%8.2%4.7%1.8%0.5%
45.2%6.0%3.4%1.3%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = The New Saints goals (down), columns = Caernarfon Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.44
Penybont
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.64
Barry Town
1.58
Caernarfon Town
1.49
Cardiff MET
1.41
Flint Town United
1.31
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.31
Bala Town
1.12
Briton Ferry
1.00
Newtown AFC
0.81
Aberystwyth Town
0.66
The New Saints is 0.95 points better than Caernarfon Town in terms of average points per game (2.44 vs 1.49).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.78
Penybont
1.75
Barry Town
1.73
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Flint Town United
1.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.29
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.27
Bala Town
1.15
Newtown AFC
1.12
Aberystwyth Town
0.88
The New Saints is 1.10 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals scored per game (2.78 vs 1.69).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.82
The New Saints
0.97
Penybont
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.09
Bala Town
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.35
Caernarfon Town
1.60
Barry Town
1.70
Flint Town United
1.94
Briton Ferry
2.03
Newtown AFC
2.03
Aberystwyth Town
2.22
The New Saints is 0.63 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.60).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W21W01L10W11D10W10W20W10W31WA·CAE26/12H·GAP31/12H·NEW04/01A·CAR14/01H·CAR01/02H·PEN08/02A·CAE11/02H·AIR15/02A·BAL21/02H·HAV08/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.831.760.711.381.00
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (5)2.601.003.330.331.502.00
vs Weaker (23)1.520.831.540.771.500.90
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L23L10W00D20W11D01L10W11DH·BAR14/12A·ABE21/12H·THE26/12A·BAL11/01H·FLI14/01A·BAL31/01H·HAV08/02H·THE11/02H·PEN22/02A·CAR08/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.731.000.670.67
vs Stronger (5)0.601.400.671.330.501.50
vs Similar (23)0.780.610.820.730.750.50
vs Weaker (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D20W10W20W30W00D30W10W20WA·CAE26/12H·GAP31/12H·NEW04/01A·CAR14/01H·CAR01/02H·PEN08/02A·CAE11/02H·AIR15/02A·BAL21/02H·HAV08/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.271.880.180.690.38
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (5)1.600.202.670.000.000.50
vs Weaker (23)1.430.171.850.150.900.20
Clean sheet %77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L02L10W30W11D00D00D22D13LH·BAR14/12A·ABE21/12H·THE26/12A·BAL11/01H·FLI14/01A·BAL31/01H·HAV08/02H·THE11/02H·PEN22/02A·CAR08/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.000.801.270.730.73
vs Stronger (5)0.202.200.002.330.502.00
vs Similar (23)0.870.701.001.000.750.42
vs Weaker (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.9%-------✗ Miss
Home win73.0%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

The New Saints
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
The New Saints's squad is €1m more valuable than Caernarfon Town's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
The New Saints and Caernarfon Town have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Caernarfon Town have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
The New Saints and Caernarfon Town have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
7
TNS wins
0
Draws
1
CT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town · H/A from TNS
DateH/AGameScore
11/02/25ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS0-1
26/12/24ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS2-5
09/10/24HTNS Vs Caernarfon Town1-2
05/04/24HTNS Vs Caernarfon Town7-1
23/02/24ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS1-8
26/12/23HTNS Vs Caernarfon Town2-1
26/09/23ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS1-3
03/01/23ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS0-1

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25HTNS Vs Haverfordwest County AFC5-1
21/02/25ABala Town Vs TNS0-2
15/02/25HTNS Vs Airbus UK5-0
11/02/25ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS0-1
08/02/25HTNS Vs Penybont4-0
01/02/25HTNS Vs Cardiff MET3-1
14/01/25ACardiff MET Vs TNS0-2
04/01/25HTNS Vs Newtown AFC2-1
31/12/24HTNS Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC2-1
26/12/24ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS2-5

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25ACardiff MET Vs CT4-2
22/02/25HCT Vs Penybont3-2
11/02/25HCT Vs The New Saints0-1
08/02/25HCT Vs Haverfordwest County AFC1-1
31/01/25ABala Town Vs CT1-3
14/01/25HCT Vs Flint Town United3-0
11/01/25ABala Town Vs CT0-2
26/12/24HCT Vs The New Saints2-5
21/12/24AAberystwyth Town Vs CT3-1
14/12/24HCT Vs Barry Town3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.10
HomeWWWWW2.30
AwayLWWWW1.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%74%61%
AVG goals3.744.043.39
Over 1.5 %84%89%78%
Over 2.5 %68%74%61%
Over 3.5 %46%48%43%
Scored2.723.222.13
Conceded1.020.811.26
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet38%44%30%
Corners7.626.758.50
Cards3.675.002.60
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.38
HomeLWDLW1.44
AwayDLWWL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals3.363.563.16
Over 1.5 %86%84%88%
Over 2.5 %66%72%60%
Over 3.5 %42%44%40%
Scored1.441.561.32
Conceded1.922.001.84
BTTS68%68%68%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners10.0010.00-
Cards7.007.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3278
81%
2.4
8931+58
3.8
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.81.0
-
2PenybontPenybont3264
59%
2.0
5632+24
2.8
69%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3354
42%
1.6
4227+15
2.1
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.30.8
-
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3552
43%
1.5
5956+3
3.3
86%
66%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.6
-
5Barry TownBarry Town3352
45%
1.6
5756+1
3.4
91%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.7
-
6Cardiff METCardiff MET3448
38%
1.4
4446-2
2.6
74%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.4
-
7GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3242
38%
1.3
4735+12
2.6
69%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3242
41%
1.3
4862-14
3.4
91%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.9
-
9Bala TownBala Town3337
24%
1.1
3844-6
2.5
70%
45%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
10Briton FerryBriton Ferry3232
28%
1.0
4665-19
3.5
78%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.0
-
11Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3226
19%
0.8
3665-29
3.2
84%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3221
19%
0.7
2871-43
3.1
81%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
Wales: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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