The New Saints enter the match on a three-game winning streak, having demolished Cardiff MET 5-0, while Flint Town United come off four straight defeats and a 0-1 loss to Briton Ferry. The model therefore rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 74 % probability. This high confidence reflects the Saints’ strong home form - averaging 2.5 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded against weaker opposition - against an away side that struggles to keep clean sheets, conceding 0.5 on average against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.6 goals suggests a lively encounter, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 21 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 10 % chance. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 74 %, 16 % and 9 % respectively. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.7 %, Under 7.5 at 97.0 %, Home +2 handicap at 96.9 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 93.7 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 93.2 %, Under 6.5 at 92.8 %, Home or Draw at 90.6 % and Home +1 handicap also at 90.6 %. Each selection is presented with its exact percentage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
The New Saints win
75.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United win
8.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
The New Saints
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.80
2.57
0.79
2.38
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
2.48
0.79
2.57
0.79
2.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flint Town United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.25
1.69
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
1.33
2.67
1.33
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.15
1.58
0.92
1.92
1.36
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.7%
Under 1.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.9%
Under 2.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.9%
3-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
3-1
8.1%
1-1
7.0%
1-0
6.5%
4-0
6.3%
4-1
5.6%
The New Saints goals ↓
Flint Town United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
1.7%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
1
6.5%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
2
9.9%
8.8%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
9.1%
8.1%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
4
6.3%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = The New Saints goals (down), columns = Flint Town United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
The New Saints is 2.50 points better than Flint Town United in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
The New Saints is 1.67 goals better than Flint Town United in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
The New Saints is 1.33 goals better than Flint Town United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
The New Saints or Draw
91.2%
Avg Implied -
76%
15%
9%
covers The New Saints + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
The New Saints or Flint Town United
84.7%
Avg Implied -
76%
15%
9%
covers The New Saints + Flint Town United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flint Town United
24.1%
Avg Implied -
76%
15%
9%
covers Draw + Flint Town United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
The New Saints over/under 0.5
Over
93.8%
Under
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 3.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to The New Saints, so a minus line means The New Saints give that many goals of a start and Flint Town United receive them. At -1, The New Saints must win by two or more to land; a one-goal The New Saints win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (The New Saints)
The New Saints -2
35.3%
Draw -2
20.9%
Flint Town United +2
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (The New Saints)
The New Saints -1
56.2%
Draw -1
19.7%
Flint Town United +1
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (The New Saints)
The New Saints +1
91.2%
Draw +1
5.9%
Flint Town United -1
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (The New Saints)
The New Saints +2
97.2%
Draw +2
2.2%
Flint Town United -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
The New Saints
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
0.93
0.36
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.03
0.31
0.93
0.36
1.13
0.27
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flint Town United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.62
0.75
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.67
1.67
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.42
0.83
0.79
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
The New Saints
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.50
1.64
0.43
1.31
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.45
0.48
1.64
0.43
1.27
0.53
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flint Town United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.62
0.94
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.85
0.50
1.08
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
The New Saints's squad is €2m more valuable than Flint Town United's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Flint Town United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Flint Town United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Flint Town United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →