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The New Saints vs Haverfordwest County AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 16/09/2023
Time: 13:30
Final 5-1
The New Saints
The New Saints
Vs
75%
15%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

The New Saints win✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC win✗ Miss
9.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L02L11D23L62W10W22D10W60W00DA·BK 12/07H·BK 18/07H·SWI25/07A·SWI01/08H·GAP11/08A·PON19/08H·BAR26/08A·COL29/08H·ABE01/09A·BAL13/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.170.833.870.802.470.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Weaker (28)3.360.714.140.712.570.71
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W12L10W00D02L11D22D21W04LA·SHK13/07H·SHK20/07A·B3627/07H·B3603/08H·PON11/08A·PEN18/08H·CAE26/08A·BAR29/08A·COL02/09H·NEW09/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.231.640.931.061.50
vs Stronger (3)0.671.331.000.000.502.00
vs Similar (25)1.201.281.501.080.921.46
vs Weaker (2)4.000.504.000.004.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.2%
Under 2.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.7%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
8.2%
1-1
6.8%
4-0
6.0%
4-1
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
The New Saints goals ↓
Haverfordwest County AFC goals →
01234
02.8%1.6%1.0%0.3%0.1%
15.7%6.8%3.0%1.0%0.2%
29.0%8.7%4.2%1.4%0.3%
38.5%8.2%4.0%1.3%0.3%
46.0%5.8%2.8%0.9%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = The New Saints goals (down), columns = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
The New Saints is 1.53 points better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of average points per game (2.88 vs 1.34).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
The New Saints is 2.44 goals better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals scored per game (3.66 vs 1.22).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
The New Saints is 0.69 goals better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.56 vs 1.25).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L01L11D32W00D00D00D20W00DA·BK 12/07H·BK 18/07H·SWI25/07A·SWI01/08H·GAP11/08A·PON19/08H·BAR26/08A·COL29/08H·ABE01/09A·BAL13/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.401.670.401.200.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.502.000.001.001.003.00
vs Weaker (28)1.500.291.790.361.210.21
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D00D01L00D02L00D02LA·SHK13/07H·SHK20/07A·B3627/07H·B3603/08H·PON11/08A·PEN18/08H·CAE26/08A·BAR29/08A·COL02/09H·NEW09/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.790.500.380.81
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.600.680.830.580.380.77
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L10W12L30W10W22D10W40W00DA·BK 12/07H·BK 18/07H·SWI25/07A·SWI01/08H·GAP11/08A·PON19/08H·BAR26/08A·COL29/08H·ABE01/09A·BAL13/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.432.200.401.270.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (28)1.860.432.360.361.360.50
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W11D10W00D01L11D20W21W02LA·SHK13/07H·SHK20/07A·B3627/07H·B3603/08H·PON11/08A·PEN18/08H·CAE26/08A·BAR29/08A·COL02/09H·NEW09/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.860.430.690.69
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.000.000.501.00
vs Similar (25)0.600.600.670.500.540.69
vs Weaker (2)3.000.003.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards80.0%--------
Under 11.5 corners78.8%--------
Home win75.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards74.7%--------
Over 2.573.2%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
The New Saints's squad is €1m more valuable than Haverfordwest County AFC's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
The New Saints and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
The New Saints and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
TNS wins
0
Draws
0
HCA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

The New Saints vs Haverfordwest County AFC · H/A from TNS
DateH/AGameScore
07/01/23HTNS Vs Haverfordwest County AFC3-1
29/10/22AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs TNS1-3

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/23ABala Town Vs TNS0-0
01/09/23HTNS Vs Aberystwyth Town6-0
29/08/23AColwyn Bay Vs TNS0-1
26/08/23HTNS Vs Barry Town2-2
19/08/23APontypridd Town Vs TNS0-1
11/08/23HTNS Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC6-2
01/08/23ASwift Hesperange Vs TNS3-2
25/07/23HTNS Vs Swift Hesperange1-1
18/07/23HTNS Vs BK Hacken0-2
12/07/23ABK Hacken Vs TNS3-1

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/09/23HHCA Vs Newtown AFC0-4
02/09/23AColwyn Bay Vs HCA1-2
29/08/23ABarry Town Vs HCA2-2
26/08/23HHCA Vs Caernarfon Town1-1
18/08/23APenybont Vs HCA2-0
11/08/23HHCA Vs Pontypridd Town0-0
03/08/23HHCA Vs B36 Torshavn1-0
27/07/23AB36 Torshavn Vs HCA2-1
20/07/23HHCA Vs Shkendija1-0
13/07/23AShkendija Vs HCA1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD2.22
HomeLDWDW2.52
AwayLLWWD1.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%78%57%
AVG goals3.614.043.17
Over 1.5 %74%83%65%
Over 2.5 %54%65%43%
Over 3.5 %46%48%43%
Scored2.893.352.43
Conceded0.720.700.74
BTTS39%48%30%
Clean Sheet54%48%61%
Corners10.438.0013.67
Cards4.714.005.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.39
HomeWWDDL1.86
AwayLLLDW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%52%26%
AVG goals2.642.712.57
Over 1.5 %77%76%78%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %30%38%22%
Scored1.321.571.09
Conceded1.321.141.48
BTTS57%57%57%
Clean Sheet27%38%17%
Corners11.6713.508.00
Cards4.675.503.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3292
94%
2.9
11718+99
4.2
81%
72%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.70.6
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3259
56%
1.8
7043+27
3.5
84%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.3
-
3PenybontPenybont3452
44%
1.5
5240+12
2.7
71%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.2
-
4Bala TownBala Town3251
41%
1.6
3831+7
2.2
59%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.0
-
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3447
38%
1.4
5771-14
3.8
91%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.72.1
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3344
39%
1.3
4951-2
3.0
79%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3243
34%
1.3
3940-1
2.5
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8Cardiff METCardiff MET3339
30%
1.2
3565-30
3.0
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.0
-
9Barry TownBarry Town3232
22%
1.0
3654-18
2.8
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
10Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3231
25%
1.0
2341-18
2.0
56%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3227
22%
0.8
2757-30
2.6
69%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3225
22%
0.8
3466-32
3.1
72%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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