The New Saints are the clear favourites, with the model assigning an 83 % chance of a home win, a 12 % draw probability and only 6 % for Llandudno to triumph. The team’s recent 3-game winning streak, highlighted by a 5-0 rout of Cardiff MET, underpins that confidence, while Llandudno’s away form against stronger opponents shows only 1.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. The model expects a high-scoring affair, averaging 4.1 goals and predicting a 6+ total with a 22 % likelihood. The single most probable scoreline is 3-0 for The New Saints, carrying a 9.7 % probability. Home side scoring averages 2.5 goals and conceding 0.86 at home, whereas Llandudno’s away scoring of 1.62 and conceding 0.88 reflect their weaker stance. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99 %), Home +2 handicap (98.3 %), Home over 0.5 goals (96 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.8 %), Under 7.5 (94.6 %), Home or Draw (94.3 %), Home +1 handicap (94.3 %) and Over 1.5 (91.7 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
The New Saints win
84.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
10.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Llandudno win
4.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
The New Saints
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.80
2.57
0.79
2.38
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
2.48
0.79
2.57
0.79
2.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.03
3.50
0.71
1.62
1.31
vs Stronger (18)
2.56
0.89
3.78
0.67
1.33
1.11
vs Similar (9)
2.44
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.3%
Under 2.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.1%
Under 3.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.4%
2-0
9.4%
4-0
8.6%
3-1
7.9%
2-1
7.1%
4-1
6.5%
5-0
5.7%
1-0
5.2%
The New Saints goals ↓
Llandudno goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
5.2%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
2
9.4%
7.1%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
3
10%
7.9%
3.0%
0.8%
0.1%
4
8.6%
6.5%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = The New Saints goals (down), columns = Llandudno goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
The New Saints is 0.67 points better than Llandudno in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
The New Saints is 0.50 goals better than Llandudno in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
The New Saints is 0.67 goals better than Llandudno in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
The New Saints or Draw
95.3%
Avg Implied -
85%
10%
5%
covers The New Saints + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
The New Saints or Llandudno
89.6%
Avg Implied -
85%
10%
5%
covers The New Saints + Llandudno
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Llandudno
15.1%
Avg Implied -
85%
10%
5%
covers Draw + Llandudno
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
The New Saints over/under 0.5
Over
96.4%
Under
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5
Over
84.3%
Under
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 3.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 0.5
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to The New Saints, so a minus line means The New Saints give that many goals of a start and Llandudno receive them. At -1, The New Saints must win by two or more to land; a one-goal The New Saints win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (The New Saints)
The New Saints -2
48.8%
Draw -2
20.1%
Llandudno +2
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (The New Saints)
The New Saints -1
68.9%
Draw -1
16.0%
Llandudno +1
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (The New Saints)
The New Saints +1
95.3%
Draw +1
3.3%
Llandudno -1
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (The New Saints)
The New Saints +2
98.7%
Draw +2
1.1%
Llandudno -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
The New Saints
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
0.93
0.36
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.03
0.31
0.93
0.36
1.13
0.27
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.21
0.50
0.94
0.19
vs Stronger (18)
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.44
0.33
0.22
vs Similar (9)
1.56
0.33
0.75
0.75
2.20
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
The New Saints
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.50
1.64
0.43
1.31
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.45
0.48
1.64
0.43
1.27
0.53
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.70
2.29
0.21
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (18)
1.72
0.56
2.44
0.22
1.00
0.89
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.75
0.25
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
3.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
The New Saints's squad is €2m more valuable than Llandudno's (€3m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Llandudno have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Llandudno have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
The New Saints and Llandudno have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell