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Thor Akureyri vs Keflavik Result & Analysis

Date: 18/05/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 2-4
Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
Vs
35%
28%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Thor Akureyri win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Keflavik win✓ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-721W04L41W10W22D70W31W11D41W41WA·GRO14/09A·AFT08/02H·HK 15/02H·IR 01/03H·FH 11/03H·MAG03/04H·IR 19/04H·HK 02/05A·LEI09/05A·SEL13/05
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.571.821.181.692.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.521.621.671.251.332.11
vs Weaker (9)2.331.442.201.002.502.00
Clean sheet %13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L10W41W30W54W60W10W31W01L52WA·KR 03/02H·IBV15/02A·STJ25/02H·SEL28/02H·LEI07/03H·THR06/04H·LEI17/04A·FJO02/05H·THR09/05H·VIK14/05
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.202.441.221.421.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.881.242.141.211.551.27
vs Weaker (5)2.801.003.501.250.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
7.2%
1-0
7.2%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
Thor Akureyri goals ↓
Keflavik goals →
01234
07.2%7.4%6.1%2.9%1.0%
17.2%13%8.5%4.0%1.4%
25.8%8.2%5.9%2.8%1.0%
32.7%3.8%2.7%1.3%0.5%
40.9%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Thor Akureyri goals (down), columns = Keflavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Thor Akureyri
2.05
Njardvik
1.92
HK Kopavogur
1.84
Keflavik
1.72
Throttur Reykjavik
1.71
IR Reykjavik
1.68
Völsungur
1.14
Leiknir R.
1.05
Fylkir
1.05
Grindavik
0.95
Selfoss
0.86
Fjolnir
0.68
Thor Akureyri is 0.33 points better than Keflavik in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 1.72).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Keflavik
2.44
Thor Akureyri
2.32
Njardvik
2.17
HK Kopavogur
2.12
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Grindavik
1.73
IR Reykjavik
1.73
Völsungur
1.64
Fylkir
1.55
Fjolnir
1.45
Selfoss
1.14
Leiknir R.
1.09
Thor Akureyri is 0.12 goals worse than Keflavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.32 vs 2.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Njardvik
1.21
IR Reykjavik
1.23
Thor Akureyri
1.41
Fylkir
1.45
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Keflavik
1.64
Leiknir R.
1.82
Throttur Reykjavik
1.83
Selfoss
2.00
Völsungur
2.36
Fjolnir
2.41
Grindavik
2.77
Thor Akureyri is 0.23 goals better than Keflavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.64).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W03L00D00D11D50W21W11D30W31WA·GRO14/09A·AFT08/02H·HK 15/02H·IR 01/03H·FH 11/03H·MAG03/04H·IR 19/04H·HK 02/05A·LEI09/05A·SEL13/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.630.650.471.150.85
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.810.710.750.500.891.00
vs Weaker (9)1.000.440.400.401.750.50
Clean sheet %53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W20W20W41W10W10W11D00D22DA·KR 03/02H·IBV15/02A·STJ25/02H·SEL28/02H·LEI07/03H·THR06/04H·LEI17/04A·FJO02/05H·THR09/05H·VIK14/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.471.110.560.750.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.920.481.000.570.820.36
vs Weaker (5)1.200.401.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L41W10W11D20W10W00D11D10WA·GRO14/09A·AFT08/02H·HK 15/02H·IR 01/03H·FH 11/03H·MAG03/04H·IR 19/04H·HK 02/05A·LEI09/05A·SEL13/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.931.180.710.541.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.710.900.920.750.441.11
vs Weaker (9)1.331.001.800.600.751.50
Clean sheet %33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D21W10W13L50W00D20W01L30WA·KR 03/02H·IBV15/02A·STJ25/02H·SEL28/02H·LEI07/03H·THR06/04H·LEI17/04A·FJO02/05H·THR09/05H·VIK14/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.731.330.670.670.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.960.761.140.640.730.91
vs Weaker (5)1.600.602.000.750.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
Thor Akureyri and Keflavik have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Thor Akureyri and Keflavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Thor Akureyri and Keflavik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
Thor Akureyri and Keflavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
TA wins
1
Draws
1
KEF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Thor Akureyri vs Keflavik · H/A from TA
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/24AKeflavik Vs TA3-2
25/05/24HTA Vs Keflavik1-1

Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/25ASelfoss Vs TA1-4
09/05/25ALeiknir R. Vs TA1-4
02/05/25HTA Vs HK Kopavogur1-1
19/04/25HTA Vs IR Reykjavik3-1
03/04/25HTA Vs Magni7-0
11/03/25HTA Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-2
01/03/25HTA Vs IR Reykjavik1-0
15/02/25HTA Vs HK Kopavogur4-1
08/02/25AAfturelding Vs TA4-0
14/09/24AGrotta Vs TA1-2

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/25HKEF Vs Vikingur Olafsiik5-2
09/05/25HKEF Vs Throttur Reykjavik0-1
02/05/25AFjolnir Vs KEF1-3
17/04/25HKEF Vs Leiknir R.1-0
06/04/25HKEF Vs Thróttur Vogar6-0
07/03/25HKEF Vs Leiknir R.5-4
28/02/25HKEF Vs Selfoss3-0
25/02/25AStjarnan Vs KEF1-4
15/02/25HKEF Vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar1-0
03/02/25AKR Reykjavik Vs KEF2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.56
HomeWDWWD1.57
AwayLWLWW1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%43%45%
AVG goals3.323.253.41
Over 1.5 %84%82%86%
Over 2.5 %62%61%64%
Over 3.5 %44%43%45%
Scored1.942.041.82
Conceded1.381.211.59
BTTS60%61%59%
Clean Sheet18%18%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.74
HomeWWWLW2.11
AwayDWLWW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%64%32%
AVG goals3.443.753.05
Over 1.5 %80%86%73%
Over 2.5 %70%79%59%
Over 3.5 %54%54%55%
Scored2.002.461.41
Conceded1.441.291.64
BTTS62%68%55%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NjardvikNjardvik2446
54%
1.9
5229+23
3.4
96%
75%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.2
-
2HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2546
56%
1.8
5338+15
3.6
92%
80%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
3Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri2245
64%
2.0
5131+20
3.7
95%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.4
-
4KeflavikKeflavik2543
52%
1.7
6141+20
4.1
92%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.41.6
-
5Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik2441
50%
1.7
4844+4
3.8
96%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
6IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik2237
45%
1.7
3827+11
3.0
77%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7VölsungurVölsungur2225
32%
1.1
3652-16
4.0
95%
77%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.4
-
8FylkirFylkir2223
27%
1.0
3432+2
3.0
91%
64%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
9Leiknir R.Leiknir R.2223
27%
1.0
2440-16
2.9
77%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.8
-
10GrindavikGrindavik2221
27%
1.0
3861-23
4.5
100%
82%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.8
-
11SelfossSelfoss2219
27%
0.9
2544-19
3.1
95%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12FjolnirFjolnir2215
14%
0.7
3253-21
3.9
95%
77%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.4
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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