Thor Akureyri's recent win over Breidablik has given them momentum heading into this match against Keflavik. The model predicts a home win, with a 51% probability of Thor Akureyri emerging victorious, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 24% probability of Keflavik taking the points. The expected total goals is 3.1, suggesting a high-scoring match.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.3%. Thor Akureyri's home form is impressive, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 1.3 per match against similar opponents. Keflavik, on the other hand, scores an average of 2.08 goals and concedes 1.75 away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 83% probability. Other suggested picks include the Home win (51%), the Draw (25%), and the Away win (24%).
Results analysis
Thor Akureyri's winning streak came to an abrupt end as Keflavik claimed a 0-2 away victory, extending their own run of results. The model's selection, home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's call was wrong, as Keflavik pulled off the upset. The model's selection of home win was not the only one to miss, the most likely total goals of 2 also failed to materialize. In contrast, the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Thor Akureyri win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 2.97
Edge
+20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.14
Dafabet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 3.90
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Keflavik win✓ Hit
23.2%
Avg Implied 46.3% · @ 1.96
Edge
-23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
SBO
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Thor Akureyri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.37
2.47
1.13
1.93
1.60
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.78
1.43
1.90
1.20
1.69
1.62
vs Weaker (6)
3.83
1.17
4.00
1.00
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.77
3.07
1.47
1.60
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
-
-
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
2.24
1.72
2.77
1.46
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
1.00
5.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
@ 1.08-6.4%
Under 1.5
20.9%
@ 6.36+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.80
Pinnacle
6.68
888Sport
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.32-14.8%
Under 2.5
45.3%
@ 3.00+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.08
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
3.04
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.3%
@ 1.85-17.8%
Under 3.5
67.7%
@ 1.86+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.97
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
10Bet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.7%
@ 1.32-12.4%
No
43.3%
@ 2.97+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
No
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 8.62+6.9%
2-1
9.7%@ 10.73+5.5%
1-0
8.8%@ 17.08+6.2%
2-0
8.7%@ 21.20+6.5%
0-0
6.8%@ 23.44+4.9%
1-2
6.2%@ 8.54+0.9%
3-1
5.7%@ 18.81+3.3%
2-2
5.4%@ 9.96+0.9%
Thor Akureyri goals ↓
Keflavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.2%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.8%
12%
6.2%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.7%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.1%
5.7%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.2%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Thor Akureyri goals (down), columns = Keflavik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
Thor Akureyri is 0.19 points worse than Keflavik in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
Thor Akureyri is 0.79 goals worse than Keflavik in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
Thor Akureyri is 0.43 goals worse than Keflavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Thor Akureyri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.57
1.40
0.53
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
0.67
3.25
0.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
1.27
0.73
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.88
1.23
0.77
0.58
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Thor Akureyri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.07
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.87
1.10
0.60
1.00
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.93
1.80
0.73
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
-
-
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.32
0.84
1.54
0.69
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
3.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-6.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
Thor Akureyri and Keflavik have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Thor Akureyri and Keflavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
Thor Akureyri and Keflavik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
Thor Akureyri and Keflavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
Vikingur Reykjavik
IA Akranes
Stjarnan
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar