The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.8 goals and a 21 % chance that the total will be exactly three. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 8.9 % probability. Throttur Reykjavik, playing at home, averages 1.91 goals scored and 2.27 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Afturelding, on the road, averages 1.31 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model favours an away win, with a 45 % probability, followed by a 32 % chance of a home win and a 23 % chance of a draw. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (89.9 %), Over 2.5 (72.8 %) and BTTS Yes (72.5 %). The recent form narrative shows Throttur coming off a 0-3 defeat to HK Kopavogur, whereas Afturelding enters after a 7-0 triumph over Ægir. The predicted outcome, an away victory, reflects the stronger away form and the higher probability of a win for Afturelding.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Throttur Reykjavik snatched a 4-1 victory, overturning the model’s favourite of an away win that carried a 45 % probability. The pre-match pick was wrong, but the game still delivered on the model’s other selections: Over 1.5 goals hit, Over 2.5 goals hit, and BTTS Yes hit, each with probabilities of 89.9 %, 72.8 % and 72.5 % respectively. The final score of 4-1 confirmed a home win, a result that contradicted the 32 % home-win expectation. Throttur’s recent form, marked by a win after a defeat, and Afturelding’s strong away run, set the stage for a surprising outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Throttur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Afturelding win✗ Miss
44.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Throttur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.77
2.12
1.81
2.36
1.71
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
1.00
2.67
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.00
2.10
1.91
2.27
2.10
1.90
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.00
2.50
0.50
3.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.80
2.33
1.67
1.60
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
1.50
6.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.64
1.92
2.00
1.83
1.31
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
1.00
2.50
1.00
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.8%
Under 2.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.5%
No
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
7.0%
1-3
5.7%
2-3
4.9%
0-2
4.8%
3-2
4.2%
Throttur Reykjavik goals ↓
Afturelding goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
3.9%
4.8%
3.3%
1.7%
1
3.1%
8.9%
8.3%
5.7%
2.9%
2
3.4%
7.0%
7.2%
4.9%
2.5%
3
2.0%
4.1%
4.2%
2.8%
1.5%
4
0.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.2%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Throttur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Afturelding goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Njardvik
2.25
Afturelding
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.86
Throttur Reykjavik
1.86
HK Kopavogur
1.86
Fylkir
1.62
Völsungur
1.50
Grindavik
1.22
Grotta
1.14
Vestri
0.86
Leiknir R.
0.86
Ægir
0.00
Throttur Reykjavik is 0.14 points worse than Afturelding in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.71
HK Kopavogur
3.14
Fylkir
2.75
Njardvik
2.75
Throttur Reykjavik
2.14
Leiknir R.
1.86
Grotta
1.86
IR Reykjavik
1.71
Völsungur
1.38
Grindavik
1.22
Vestri
1.14
Ægir
0.67
Throttur Reykjavik is 1.57 goals worse than Afturelding in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 3.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.29
IR Reykjavik
1.43
Grotta
1.57
HK Kopavogur
1.71
Afturelding
1.86
Njardvik
1.88
Leiknir R.
2.00
Fylkir
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
Grindavik
2.11
Vestri
2.71
Ægir
4.17
Throttur Reykjavik is 0.57 goals better than Afturelding in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Throttur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.81
0.81
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.76
0.73
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.60
0.80
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.64
0.33
0.83
0.31
0.46
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Throttur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.13
1.31
1.00
1.79
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.67
1.67
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.33
1.18
1.27
1.60
1.40
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
0.67
1.50
0.00
2.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.17
1.73
0.87
1.07
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.28
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.54
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (25)
€1m
AFT (23)
€1m
TR (20)
€1m
NJA (27)
€1m
FYL (21)
€1m
HK (20)
€1m
GRO (25)
€1m
LR (25)
€1m
IR (22)
€1m
VÖL (24)
€1m
ÆGI (29)
€0m
Throttur Reykjavik and Afturelding have a similar squad value (both €1m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Njardvik
HK Kopavogur
Fylkir
IR Reykjavik
Völsungur
Grindavik
Grotta
Leiknir R.
Vestri
Ægir