Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Result & Analysis

The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 4.3 goals, and the most likely total is 6+, a 26% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2, with a 7.5% probability, and the model’s pick is an away win. Home side Throttur Reykjavik, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 2.25 goals scored and 2.42 conceded; Fylkir, on the road, averages 1.92 scored and 1.33 conceded. Home win probability sits at 31%, draw at 21%, and away win at 49%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (93.2%), Over 1.5 (93.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.7%), Under 6.5 (86.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (84.8%), and Over 2.5 (79.7%). The model also lists Away over 0.5 goals (90.7%) and Away +2 handicap (84.0%) as selections, though they are marked miss. The recent form shows Throttur coming off a 0-3 defeat, while Fylkir returns from a 6-1 win.

The pre-match favourite, an away win, failed to materialise as Throttur Reykjavik overturned expectations with a 3-0 victory, extending their recent run of results. The model had predicted an away win with a 49 % probability, but the outcome was a home win, so the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 3-0 matched the actual result. The model’s selections performed as follows: Under 7.5 hit at 93.2 %; Over 1.5 hit at 93.2 %; Away over 0.5 goals missed at 90.7 %; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 87.7 %; Under 6.5 hit at 86.1 %; Home over 0.5 goals hit at 84.8 %; Away +2 handicap missed at 84.0 %; Over 2.5 hit at 79.7 %. The match delivered a surprising home triumph, leaving the model’s predictions largely off the mark.