Tirana vs AF Elbasani Result & Analysis

The contest between Tirana and AF Elbasani is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and an away win are close behind. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% chance. Tirana, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded, while AF Elbasani on the road has 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 with 74.3% probability and Under 3.5 with 73.9%. The home win probability stands at 40%, the draw at 29%, and the away win at 31%. The recent form shows Tirana struggling after two straight defeats, whereas AF Elbasani is coming off a draw. All these elements combine to make the outcome uncertain, with the home side’s edge being the only marginal advantage.

The 1-1 draw was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, had a 40% probability yet did not materialise. Tirana’s recent form - two straight defeats followed by three wins - had suggested a surge, but the result was a stalemate. The model’s selection for the match was wrong, but its other choices proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 74.3% chance, and Under 3.5 goals also hit, scoring 73.9%. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, matching the final outcome. Tirana’s average of 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded at home contrasted with AF Elbasani’s 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded on the road, explaining the balanced finish.