Tirana vs AF Elbasani Result & Analysis

The contest between Tirana and AF Elbasani is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are razor-thin. The probabilities sit at 36% for Tirana, 30% for a draw and 34% for AF Elbasani, making the home side the slight favourite. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a moderate scoring match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14.1% chance. Tirana’s home form shows an average of one goal scored and 1.15 conceded against similar opposition, while AF Elbasani, playing away, averages 1.23 goals for and 1.31 against the same tier. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with 76.1% confidence and Over 1.5 with 72.2%. Every pick is listed with its percentage: Under 3.5 76.1%, Over 1.5 72.2%. The match remains uncertain, with Tirana’s 36% win chance, a 30% draw chance, and AF Elbasani’s 34% win chance all in play.

The 1-1 draw shocked the pre-match favourite, Tirana, who had been tipped to win with a 36% chance. The model’s call was wrong, as the match ended in a stalemate. Tirana’s recent form - two straight defeats followed by three wins - had suggested a surge, yet they could not secure the victory. AF Elbasani, on a run of two draws and two wins, held firm. The model’s selections also proved accurate: the Under 3.5 total, with a 76.1% probability, hit, and the Over 1.5, at 72.2%, also hit. The most likely score of 1-1 appeared in the model’s top three, confirming the prediction of a low-scoring draw.