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Tirana vs AF Elbasani Result & Analysis

Date: 29/10/2025
Time: 18:30
Final 1-4
Tirana
Tirana
Vs
34%
33%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tirana winâś— Miss
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani winâś“ Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

TiranaTirana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W00D13L11D02L12L30W00D13LH·TEU19/04A·DIN27/04A·BYL23/08A·VOR31/08H·FLA13/09A·EGN20/09H·DIN27/09A·PAR03/10H·TEU18/10A·VLL24/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.271.001.141.121.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.071.271.001.141.121.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L10W11D10W10W00D01L12L21WH·VLL19/04A·PAR27/04H·FLA23/08A·EGN30/08H·DIN14/09A·PAR20/09H·TEU27/09A·VLL04/10H·VOR19/10H·BYL24/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.001.310.881.001.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.171.001.310.881.001.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.9%
Under 1.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.5%
Under 2.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.1%
Under 3.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.3%
No
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.3%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
11.7%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
6.6%
Tirana goals ↓
AF Elbasani goals →
01234
014%12%6.6%2.2%0.6%
112%15%6.8%2.3%0.6%
27.0%7.0%3.5%1.2%0.3%
32.4%2.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%
40.6%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tirana goals (down), columns = AF Elbasani goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Besa Kavajë
2.00
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Partizani
1.33
Pogradeci
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Bylis
1.14
Flamurtari
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Tirana is 0.52 points worse than AF Elbasani in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Flamurtari
1.08
Vora
1.08
Bylis
1.06
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Pogradeci
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Tirana is 0.36 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.36).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.00
Pogradeci
0.33
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Flamurtari
1.25
Tirana
1.28
Partizani
1.33
Bylis
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Kastrioti Krujë
3.00
Tirana is 0.20 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TiranaTirana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D01L10W01L01L20W00D12LH·TEU19/04A·DIN27/04A·BYL23/08A·VOR31/08H·FLA13/09A·EGN20/09H·DIN27/09A·PAR03/10H·TEU18/10A·VLL24/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.500.290.690.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.600.430.500.290.690.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W10W00D10W00D01L00D20WH·VLL19/04A·PAR27/04H·FLA23/08A·EGN30/08H·DIN14/09A·PAR20/09H·TEU27/09A·VLL04/10H·VOR19/10H·BYL24/10
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.380.380.710.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.430.380.380.710.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TiranaTirana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D12L01L01L11D10W00D01LH·TEU19/04A·DIN27/04A·BYL23/08A·VOR31/08H·FLA13/09A·EGN20/09H·DIN27/09A·PAR03/10H·TEU18/10A·VLL24/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.500.860.440.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.470.830.500.860.440.81
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D01L10W00D00D00D12L01LH·VLL19/04A·PAR27/04H·FLA23/08A·EGN30/08H·DIN14/09A·PAR20/09H·TEU27/09A·VLL04/10H·VOR19/10H·BYL24/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.570.940.500.290.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.630.570.940.500.290.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.9%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar attack value (both €2m).

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
TIR wins
3
Draws
1
AE wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tirana vs AF Elbasani · H/A from TIR
DateH/AGameScore
31/03/25AAF Elbasani Vs TIR2-1
01/02/25HTIR Vs AF Elbasani1-1
24/11/24AAF Elbasani Vs TIR1-1
16/09/24HTIR Vs AF Elbasani1-1

TiranaTirana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/10/25AVllaznia Shkodër Vs TIR3-1
18/10/25HTIR Vs Teuta Durrës0-0
03/10/25APartizani Vs TIR0-3
27/09/25HTIR Vs Dinamo Tirana1-2
20/09/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR2-0
13/09/25HTIR Vs Flamurtari1-1
31/08/25AVora Vs TIR3-1
23/08/25ABylis Vs TIR0-0
27/04/25ADinamo Tirana Vs TIR0-2
19/04/25HTIR Vs Teuta Durrës0-1

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/10/25HAE Vs Bylis2-1
19/10/25HAE Vs Vora1-2
04/10/25AVllaznia Shkodër Vs AE1-0
27/09/25HAE Vs Teuta Durrës0-0
20/09/25APartizani Vs AE0-1
14/09/25HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana1-0
30/08/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs AE1-1
23/08/25HAE Vs Flamurtari1-0
27/04/25APartizani Vs AE2-0
19/04/25HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tirana
Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.00
HomeWLDLD1.12
AwayDLLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%21%15%
AVG goals2.302.252.35
Over 1.5 %70%62%77%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.101.121.08
Conceded1.201.121.27
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet34%38%31%
Corners---
Cards---
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.60
HomeWWDLW1.81
AwayWLDWL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%29%
AVG goals2.242.232.25
Over 1.5 %70%69%71%
Over 2.5 %38%42%33%
Over 3.5 %20%15%25%
Scored1.261.381.12
Conceded0.980.851.12
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet38%46%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3968
49%
1.7
5342+11
2.4
67%
51%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.1
-
2Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3966
49%
1.7
5035+15
2.2
62%
33%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.9
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3963
46%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
56%
28%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.10.8
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3952
33%
1.3
4538+7
2.1
69%
33%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.0
-
5PartizaniPartizani3648
36%
1.3
3848-10
2.4
72%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3745
27%
1.2
3337-4
1.9
49%
27%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.91.0
-
7TiranaTirana3644
31%
1.2
3646-10
2.3
69%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.3
-
8VoraVora3642
28%
1.2
3940-1
2.2
64%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
9BylisBylis3641
28%
1.1
3850-12
2.4
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10FlamurtariFlamurtari3636
22%
1.0
3945-6
2.3
69%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
11PogradeciPogradeci34
33%
1.3
31+2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.00.3
-
12Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë24
50%
2.0
20+2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.00.0
-
13Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
14Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1100.03.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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