The match between Tirana and AF Elbasani sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14.1 % chance. Tirana’s home form shows they average 0.93 goals scored and 1.13 conceded against similar opponents, while AF Elbasani, playing away, average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in comparable fixtures. The probabilities for the match result are 37 % for a home win, 29 % for a draw, and 34 % for an away win.
The model’s selections include a 99.6 % chance of Under 7.5 goals, 98.5 % for Under 6.5, 96.4 % for Away under 3.5 goals, 95.8 % for Home under 3.5 goals, 95.7 % for Under 5.5, 89.0 % for Under 4.5, 87.4 % for Away under 2.5 goals, and 86.0 % for Home under 2.5 goals. Tirana comes off a defeat to Egnatia Rrogozhinë, while AF Elbasani follows a draw against Laci, adding a layer of recent-form uncertainty to an already balanced contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tirana win
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani win
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
0.93
1.13
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.37
0.93
1.13
1.07
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
Tirana goals ↓
AF Elbasani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.6%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
1
9.2%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.2%
5.0%
2.1%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tirana goals (down), columns = AF Elbasani goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Tirana is 0.52 points worse than AF Elbasani in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Tirana is 0.36 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Tirana is 0.20 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tirana or Draw
66.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers Tirana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tirana or AF Elbasani
70.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers Tirana + AF Elbasani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AF Elbasani
63.1%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers Draw + AF Elbasani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tirana over/under 0.5
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tirana, so a minus line means Tirana give that many goals of a start and AF Elbasani receive them. At -1, Tirana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tirana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tirana)
Tirana -2
5.9%
Draw -2
11.1%
AF Elbasani +2
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tirana)
Tirana -1
17.0%
Draw -1
19.9%
AF Elbasani +1
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tirana)
Tirana +1
66.4%
Draw +1
18.8%
AF Elbasani -1
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tirana)
Tirana +2
85.1%
Draw +2
9.9%
AF Elbasani -2
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.47
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani