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Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Result & Analysis

Date: 16/04/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
Tirana
Tirana
Vs
37%
28%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tirana win✓ Hit
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TiranaTirana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W01L10W02L02L32W11D31W21WA·FK 29/01A·EGN06/02H·VLL12/02A·KAS19/02H·TEU25/02A·PAR06/03H·LAC11/03A·BYL18/03H·ERZ02/04H·FK 10/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.971.931.131.070.80
vs Stronger (2)1.002.000.001.002.003.00
vs Similar (21)1.480.951.731.271.200.60
vs Weaker (7)1.710.713.330.670.500.75
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L10W00D32W41W12L11D30W11DA·PAR30/01H·TIR06/02A·LAC11/02H·VLL19/02A·BYL24/02H·KAS05/03A·ERZ10/03H·TEU19/03A·FK 01/04H·PAR10/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.250.861.290.931.210.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.110.841.200.901.000.78
vs Weaker (9)1.560.891.501.001.600.80
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1 ✓
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
5.9%
Tirana goals ↓
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals →
01234
07.5%7.4%5.9%2.7%0.9%
17.6%13%8.2%3.7%1.3%
26.2%8.4%5.7%2.6%0.9%
32.9%3.9%2.7%1.2%0.4%
41.0%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tirana goals (down), columns = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Partizani
1.86
Tirana
1.86
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.44
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.39
Laci
1.33
Teuta Durrës
1.33
FK Kukesi
1.25
Erzeni Shijak
1.11
Bylis
1.06
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.97
Tirana is 0.42 points better than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Partizani
1.56
Tirana
1.56
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Laci
1.25
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.08
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.92
Bylis
0.86
FK Kukesi
0.86
Kastrioti Krujë
0.72
Tirana is 0.28 goals better than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.89
Tirana
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.03
Partizani
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.11
Bylis
1.17
Laci
1.28
Erzeni Shijak
1.32
Kastrioti Krujë
1.36
Tirana is 0.03 goals worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 0.89).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TiranaTirana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D00D01L01L30W00D00D10WA·FK 29/01A·EGN06/02H·VLL12/02A·KAS19/02H·TEU25/02A·PAR06/03H·LAC11/03A·BYL18/03H·ERZ02/04H·FK 10/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.930.530.270.47
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (21)0.620.430.820.550.400.30
vs Weaker (7)0.710.431.670.330.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W00D00D21W12L11D10W01LA·PAR30/01H·TIR06/02A·LAC11/02H·VLL19/02A·BYL24/02H·KAS05/03A·ERZ10/03H·TEU19/03A·FK 01/04H·PAR10/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.540.290.640.360.430.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.470.210.600.400.330.00
vs Weaker (9)0.670.440.750.250.600.60
Clean sheet %75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TiranaTirana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W01L10W01L01L02L11D31W11DA·FK 29/01A·EGN06/02H·VLL12/02A·KAS19/02H·TEU25/02A·PAR06/03H·LAC11/03A·BYL18/03H·ERZ02/04H·FK 10/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.471.000.600.800.33
vs Stronger (2)1.000.500.000.002.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.860.520.910.730.800.30
vs Weaker (7)1.000.291.670.330.500.25
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L00D00D32W20W00D00D20W10WA·PAR30/01H·TIR06/02A·LAC11/02H·VLL19/02A·BYL24/02H·KAS05/03A·ERZ10/03H·TEU19/03A·FK 01/04H·PAR10/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.710.570.640.570.790.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.630.630.600.500.670.78
vs Weaker (9)0.890.440.750.751.000.20
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
FK (20)
€1m
Tirana's squad is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€5m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (4)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
TIR wins
0
Draws
0
ER wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · H/A from TIR
DateH/AGameScore
06/02/23AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR1-2
03/11/22HTIR Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-0
28/08/22AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR0-2

TiranaTirana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/04/23HTIR Vs FK Kukesi2-1
02/04/23HTIR Vs Erzeni Shijak3-1
18/03/23ABylis Vs TIR1-1
11/03/23HTIR Vs Laci3-2
06/03/23APartizani Vs TIR2-0
25/02/23HTIR Vs Teuta Durrës0-2
19/02/23AKastrioti Krujë Vs TIR0-1
12/02/23HTIR Vs Vllaznia Shkodër0-1
06/02/23AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR1-2
29/01/23AFK Kukesi Vs TIR2-0

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/04/23HER Vs Partizani1-1
01/04/23AFK Kukesi Vs ER0-3
19/03/23HER Vs Teuta Durrës1-1
10/03/23AErzeni Shijak Vs ER2-1
05/03/23HER Vs Kastrioti Krujë4-1
24/02/23ABylis Vs ER2-3
19/02/23HER Vs Vllaznia Shkodër0-0
11/02/23ALaci Vs ER0-1
06/02/23HER Vs Tirana1-2
30/01/23APartizani Vs ER1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tirana
Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.56
HomeLLWWW1.56
AwayLWWLD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%50%44%
AVG goals2.443.061.81
Over 1.5 %66%69%62%
Over 2.5 %41%62%19%
Over 3.5 %25%44%6%
Scored1.441.881.00
Conceded1.001.190.81
BTTS41%50%31%
Clean Sheet31%19%44%
Corners8.339.008.00
Cards6.679.005.50
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWD1.50
HomeLDWDD1.21
AwayDWWLW1.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%29%50%
AVG goals2.112.212.00
Over 1.5 %64%79%50%
Over 2.5 %39%43%36%
Over 3.5 %11%7%14%
Scored1.251.291.21
Conceded0.860.930.79
BTTS46%50%43%
Clean Sheet43%36%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TiranaTirana3667
56%
1.9
5633+23
2.5
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.9
-
2PartizaniPartizani3667
56%
1.9
5637+19
2.6
78%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
3Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3652
39%
1.4
4632+14
2.2
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.9
-
4Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3650
36%
1.4
3937+2
2.1
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.11.0
-
5LaciLaci3648
39%
1.3
4546-1
2.5
64%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3648
33%
1.3
3340-7
2.0
61%
31%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.91.1
-
7FK KukesiFK Kukesi3645
33%
1.2
3135-4
1.8
58%
31%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
8Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3741
22%
1.1
3749-12
2.3
73%
38%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
9BylisBylis3638
25%
1.1
3142-11
2.0
61%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
10Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3635
22%
1.0
2649-23
2.1
53%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1100.71.4
-
11Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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