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Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Result & Analysis

Date: 29/11/2025
Time: 12:30
Final 0-1
Tirana
Tirana
Vs
20%
29%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tirana win✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win✓ Hit
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TiranaTirana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L12L30W00D13L14L02L02L11DH·FLA13/09A·EGN20/09H·DIN27/09A·PAR03/10H·TEU18/10A·VLL24/10H·AF 29/10H·BYL03/11H·VOR08/11A·FLA23/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.501.001.601.201.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.101.501.001.601.201.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W21W10W00D00D10W22D01L51WA·BYL13/09H·TIR20/09A·FLA28/09A·VOR05/10H·DIN18/10A·PAR25/10H·TEU28/10H·VLL04/11A·AF 09/11H·BYL22/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.831.380.751.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.200.831.380.751.000.93
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.1%
Under 2.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 ✓
13.9%
1-1
13.5%
0-0
11.8%
0-2
10.9%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.3%
0-3
5.2%
2-1
5.0%
Tirana goals ↓
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals →
01234
012%14%11%5.2%1.9%
17.3%14%8.9%4.3%1.5%
23.5%5.0%3.6%1.7%0.6%
30.9%1.3%1.0%0.5%0.2%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tirana goals (down), columns = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Besa Kavajë
2.00
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Partizani
1.33
Pogradeci
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Bylis
1.14
Flamurtari
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Tirana is 0.47 points worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.69).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Flamurtari
1.08
Vora
1.08
Bylis
1.06
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Pogradeci
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Tirana is 0.28 goals worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.00
Pogradeci
0.33
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Flamurtari
1.25
Tirana
1.28
Partizani
1.33
Bylis
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Kastrioti Krujë
3.00
Tirana is 0.38 goals worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 0.90).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TiranaTirana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L20W00D12L02L01L02L01LH·FLA13/09A·EGN20/09H·DIN27/09A·PAR03/10H·TEU18/10A·VLL24/10H·AF 29/10H·BYL03/11H·VOR08/11A·FLA23/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.570.470.600.730.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.600.570.470.600.730.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W10W00D00D10W01L00D20WA·BYL13/09H·TIR20/09A·FLA28/09A·VOR05/10H·DIN18/10A·PAR25/10H·TEU28/10H·VLL04/11A·AF 09/11H·BYL22/11
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.470.620.440.360.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.470.620.440.360.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TiranaTirana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D10W00D01L12L01L00D10WH·FLA13/09A·EGN20/09H·DIN27/09A·PAR03/10H·TEU18/10A·VLL24/10H·AF 29/10H·BYL03/11H·VOR08/11A·FLA23/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.930.531.000.470.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.930.531.000.470.87
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W11D00D00D00D00D21W01L31WA·BYL13/09H·TIR20/09A·FLA28/09A·VOR05/10H·DIN18/10A·PAR25/10H·TEU28/10H·VLL04/11A·AF 09/11H·BYL22/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.370.750.310.640.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.700.370.750.310.640.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
Tirana's squad is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€5m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
TIR wins
3
Draws
3
ER wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · H/A from TIR
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR2-0
15/03/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR1-1
18/01/25HTIR Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-4
03/11/24AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR1-0
01/09/24HTIR Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-1
11/05/24AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR0-3
10/03/24HTIR Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-1
24/12/23AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR0-5

TiranaTirana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/25AFlamurtari Vs TIR1-1
08/11/25HTIR Vs Vora0-2
03/11/25HTIR Vs Bylis0-2
29/10/25HTIR Vs AF Elbasani1-4
24/10/25AVllaznia Shkodër Vs TIR3-1
18/10/25HTIR Vs Teuta Durrës0-0
03/10/25APartizani Vs TIR0-3
27/09/25HTIR Vs Dinamo Tirana1-2
20/09/25AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR2-0
13/09/25HTIR Vs Flamurtari1-1

Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HER Vs Bylis5-1
09/11/25AAF Elbasani Vs ER1-0
04/11/25HER Vs Vllaznia Shkodër2-2
28/10/25HER Vs Teuta Durrës1-0
25/10/25APartizani Vs ER0-0
18/10/25HER Vs Dinamo Tirana0-0
05/10/25AVora Vs ER0-1
28/09/25AFlamurtari Vs ER1-2
20/09/25HER Vs Tirana2-0
13/09/25ABylis Vs ER0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tirana
Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD0.94
HomeLDLLL1.04
AwayLLWLD0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%20%12%
AVG goals2.382.402.36
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %44%40%48%
Over 3.5 %26%28%24%
Scored1.061.081.04
Conceded1.321.321.32
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.70
HomeWDWDW1.85
AwayWWWDL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%46%46%
AVG goals2.042.002.08
Over 1.5 %64%62%67%
Over 2.5 %30%27%33%
Over 3.5 %16%19%12%
Scored1.241.311.17
Conceded0.800.690.92
BTTS38%46%29%
Clean Sheet48%50%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3968
49%
1.7
5342+11
2.4
67%
51%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.1
-
2Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3966
49%
1.7
5035+15
2.2
62%
33%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.9
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3963
46%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
56%
28%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.10.8
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3952
33%
1.3
4538+7
2.1
69%
33%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.0
-
5PartizaniPartizani3648
36%
1.3
3848-10
2.4
72%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3745
27%
1.2
3337-4
1.9
49%
27%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.91.0
-
7TiranaTirana3644
31%
1.2
3646-10
2.3
69%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.3
-
8VoraVora3642
28%
1.2
3940-1
2.2
64%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
9BylisBylis3641
28%
1.1
3850-12
2.4
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10FlamurtariFlamurtari3636
22%
1.0
3945-6
2.3
69%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
11PogradeciPogradeci34
33%
1.3
31+2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.00.3
-
12Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë24
50%
2.0
20+2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.00.0
-
13Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
14Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1100.03.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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