Tirana’s defensive record at home shows a modest 1.13 goals conceded per game, while their 0.93 goals scored suggest a cautious approach. Their recent form, however, is a mixed bag of four wins and a loss, and they left their last match 0-3 to Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The away side, on the other hand, averages 1.33 goals conceded and 1.13 scored on the road against similarly strong opposition, and they finished their previous outing a 1-1 draw with Lillestrom. The model favours an away win, with a 39% chance, a draw at 31%, and a home win at 30%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 4.5 (92.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.6%), and Away +2 handicap (88.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tirana win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
0.93
1.13
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.37
0.93
1.13
1.07
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.13
1.79
0.93
1.25
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.50
1.13
1.79
0.93
1.25
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
11.3%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.4%
Tirana goals ↓
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.9%
3.3%
1.0%
1
9.1%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.4%
6.9%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.4%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tirana goals (down), columns = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Tirana is 0.47 points worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Tirana is 0.28 goals worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Tirana is 0.38 goals worse than Egnatia Rrogozhinë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 0.90).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tirana or Draw
60.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Tirana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tirana or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
69.2%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Tirana + Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
70.7%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Draw + Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tirana over/under 0.5
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tirana, so a minus line means Tirana give that many goals of a start and Egnatia Rrogozhinë receive them. At -1, Tirana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tirana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tirana)
Tirana -2
3.4%
Draw -2
8.3%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë +2
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tirana)
Tirana -1
11.6%
Draw -1
17.7%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë +1
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tirana)
Tirana +1
60.1%
Draw +1
21.6%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë -1
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tirana)
Tirana +2
81.6%
Draw +2
12.0%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.47
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Tirana's squad is €1m less valuable than Egnatia Rrogozhinë's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Tirana and Egnatia Rrogozhinë have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
AF Elbasani
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani