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Tirana vs Laci Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 15:00
Tirana
Tirana
Vs
26%
34%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laci
Laci
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Tirana’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding just over a goal per match, while Laci’s away form shows a solid barrier, allowing only a fifth of a goal on average. The model therefore leans toward a tight affair, with the most likely outcome an away win. The probabilities are 26% for a Tirana victory, 34% for a draw, and 40% for Laci to come away with the win. On average, the match should see 1.9 goals, with the most probable total being two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 0-0, with a 15.6% chance.

Tirana averages 0.93 goals scored and 1.13 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Laci scores 1.33 and concedes 0.17 when playing away. The model’s selections emphasize low scoring: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 4.5 (95.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.6%), and Away +2 handicap (91.0%). All figures are presented as percentages, with each selection listed once.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tirana win
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laci win
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TiranaTirana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D31W11D21W10W10W31W03L13LH·VOR22/03A·FLA03/04H·EGN12/04A·DIN18/04H·PAR25/04A·TEU02/05H·VLL06/05A·AF 10/05A·EGN23/08A·TEU30/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.370.931.131.071.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.001.370.931.131.071.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaciLaci

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W53W11D31W21W20W21W10W11D21WA·KOR14/03H·BES18/03A·ILI22/03H·BUR04/04A·KAS11/04H·POG19/04H·FK 25/04A·SKE04/05H·AF 22/08A·PAR29/08← 1st DivisionSuperliga →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.870.702.000.881.710.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.640.641.881.001.330.17
vs Weaker (16)2.060.752.120.752.000.75
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%025%128%218%39%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.3%
Under 1.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.0%
Under 2.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.4%
Under 3.5
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.4%
No
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.6%
1-1
14.6%
0-1
14.4%
1-0
10.7%
0-2
8.7%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
5.1%
Tirana goals ↓
Laci goals →
01234
016%14%8.7%3.2%0.9%
111%15%7.3%2.7%0.8%
25.1%5.6%3.1%1.1%0.3%
31.4%1.6%0.9%0.3%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tirana goals (down), columns = Laci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Tirana is 0.13 points better than Laci in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.09).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Tirana is 0.15 goals better than Laci in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.85).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Tirana is 0.01 goals better than Laci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tirana or Draw
59.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
34%
40%
covers Tirana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tirana or Laci
66.4%
Avg Implied -
26%
34%
40%
covers Tirana + Laci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Laci
73.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
34%
40%
covers Draw + Laci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tirana over/under 0.5
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 0.5
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Tirana, so a minus line means Tirana give that many goals of a start and Laci receive them. At -1, Tirana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tirana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tirana)
Tirana -2
2.2%
Draw -2
6.8%
Laci +2
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tirana)
Tirana -1
9.0%
Draw -1
17.2%
Laci +1
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tirana)
Tirana +1
59.8%
Draw +1
23.0%
Laci -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tirana)
Tirana +2
82.8%
Draw +2
11.8%
Laci -2
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TiranaTirana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W00D01L00D10W10W03L10WH·VOR22/03A·FLA03/04H·EGN12/04A·DIN18/04H·PAR25/04A·TEU02/05H·VLL06/05A·AF 10/05A·EGN23/08A·TEU30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.700.330.670.470.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.400.700.330.670.470.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaciLaci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W01L11D20W10W01L00D00D10WA·KOR14/03H·BES18/03A·ILI22/03H·BUR04/04A·KAS11/04H·POG19/04H·FK 25/04A·SKE04/05H·AF 22/08A·PAR29/08← 1st DivisionSuperliga →
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.230.940.250.640.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.860.071.120.120.500.00
vs Weaker (16)0.750.380.750.380.750.38
Clean sheet %80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TiranaTirana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L21W11D20W10W00D21W00D03LH·VOR22/03A·FLA03/04H·EGN12/04A·DIN18/04H·PAR25/04A·TEU02/05H·VLL06/05A·AF 10/05A·EGN23/08A·TEU30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.600.470.600.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.600.670.600.470.600.87
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaciLaci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W23L10W20W01L10W20W10W11D11DA·KOR14/03H·BES18/03A·ILI22/03H·BUR04/04A·KAS11/04H·POG19/04H·FK 25/04A·SKE04/05H·AF 22/08A·PAR29/08← 1st DivisionSuperliga →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.471.060.621.070.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.790.570.750.880.830.17
vs Weaker (16)1.310.381.380.381.250.38
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.9%-------
Under 6.599.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals98.9%-------
Under 5.598.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.4%-------
Under 4.595.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals94.6%-------
Away +2 handicap91.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals89.9%-------
Under 3.586.6%-------
Home +2 handicap82.8%-------
Home under 1.5 goals79.3%-------
Draw or Away73.8%-------
Away +1 handicap73.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Tirana's squad is €2m more valuable than Laci's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Tirana and Laci have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Tirana and Laci have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Tirana and Laci have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
TIR wins
4
Draws
3
LAC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tirana vs Laci · H/A from TIR
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/25HTIR Vs Laci4-1
21/12/24ALaci Vs TIR3-1
26/10/24HTIR Vs Laci1-1
19/08/24ALaci Vs TIR0-0
04/05/24ALaci Vs TIR1-0
26/02/24HTIR Vs Laci1-1
10/12/23ALaci Vs TIR2-2
03/10/23HTIR Vs Laci0-3

TiranaTirana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ATeuta Durrës Vs TIR3-1
23/08/26AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs TIR3-0
10/05/26AAF Elbasani Vs TIR1-3
06/05/26HTIR Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-0
02/05/26ATeuta Durrës Vs TIR0-1
25/04/26HTIR Vs Partizani2-1
18/04/26ADinamo Tirana Vs TIR1-1
12/04/26HTIR Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë3-1
03/04/26AFlamurtari Vs TIR1-1
22/03/26HTIR Vs Vora3-0

LaciLaci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26APartizani Vs LAC1-2
22/08/26HLAC Vs AF Elbasani1-1
04/05/26ASkenderbeu Korce Vs LAC0-1
25/04/26HLAC Vs FK Kukesi2-1
19/04/26HLAC Vs Pogradeci2-0
11/04/26AKastrioti Krujë Vs LAC1-2
04/04/26HLAC Vs Burreli3-1
22/03/26AIliria Fushë-Krujë Vs LAC1-1
18/03/26HLAC Vs Besa Kavajë5-3
14/03/26AKorabi Peshkopi Vs LAC0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tirana
Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.20
HomeWWWWW1.32
AwayDWWLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.402.202.60
Over 1.5 %72%60%84%
Over 2.5 %38%36%40%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.081.081.08
Conceded1.321.121.52
BTTS52%40%64%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Laci
Laci
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.00
HomeWWWWD2.20
AwayWDWWW1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%64%52%
AVG goals2.362.642.08
Over 1.5 %70%80%60%
Over 2.5 %46%56%36%
Over 3.5 %16%20%12%
Scored1.541.801.28
Conceded0.820.840.80
BTTS52%64%40%
Clean Sheet36%32%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë26
100%
3.0
61+5
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2133.00.5
-
2Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.50.5
-
3LaciLaci24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana23
50%
1.5
11+0
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.50.5
-
5VoraVora23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.5
-
6Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër22
0%
1.0
33+0
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.51.5
-
7AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.0
-
8Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.5
-
9PartizaniPartizani21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.51.0
-
10TiranaTirana20
0%
0.0
16-5
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.53.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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