Torpedo Kutaisi are tipped to win, with a 42% chance of triumph, a 31% draw probability and a 27% chance for Dila. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% likelihood. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance. Torpedo’s home form shows they score 1.33 goals and concede 1.0 against teams of similar strength, while Dila, on the road, averages 1.0 goal for and 1.78 against. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with a 79.9% probability of success. The home win percentage is 42%, the draw 31%, and the away win 27%. The model’s selection Under 3.5 carries a 79.9% chance, and the result is marked hit.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Torpedo Kutaisi, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had given the home side a 42% chance of victory, but the game ended in a stalemate, a result that was not predicted. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.9% probability, and it hit, as the total goals were indeed zero. Torpedo’s recent form was a shaky run of LDWLD, coming off a defeat, while Dila’s run of LDWWW also ended in a loss. The final score of 0-0 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, but the outcome was a draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi win✗ Miss
42.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dila win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.50
1.33
1.00
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.92
1.50
0.83
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.07
1.40
0.80
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.44
1.22
1.11
1.00
1.78
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.7%
0-0 ✓
11.3%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.0%
Torpedo Kutaisi goals ↓
Dila goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.7%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.5%
2
8.4%
8.5%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.7%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (down), columns = Dila goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila are level in average points per game (both 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.03 goals worse than Dila in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.06 goals better than Dila in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dila
For 4.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (37)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (39)
7.0
7.0
7.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
7.0
7.0
7.0
0.5
0.4
0.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
5%
5%
5%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
95%
95%
95%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Saburtalo
10.2
Dinamo Tbilisi
8.0
Dinamo Batumi
7.5
Dila
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dila
5.5
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.7
Dinamo Tbilisi
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Batumi
27.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.64
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.71
0.75
0.38
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.23
0.50
0.33
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.73
0.33
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.67
0.78
0.44
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.08
0.67
0.17
0.83
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.71
0.75
0.38
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.67
0.47
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.78
0.44
0.67
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.42
1.00
0.17
0.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's squad is €3m more valuable than Dila's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dila's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →