Torpedo Kutaisi’s defensive record at home shows they concede 1.5 goals per game, while Dila, on the road, averages only one goal against similar opposition - a clear advantage for the visitors. The model therefore picks an away win, with the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win standing at 28%, 31% and 41% respectively. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% chance. Dila’s away form is stronger, scoring 1.57 goals per match and conceding just one, whereas Torpedo Kutaisi’s home form shows 1.12 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s only suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with an 82% probability. These figures point to a tight, low-scoring encounter where the visitors are favoured to edge out a win.
Results analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi’s recent run of LDWLD left them still on a losing streak, while Dila, fresh from a defeat yet boasting a LDWWW sequence, carried momentum into the match. The model’s favourite, an Away win with a 41% probability, proved accurate as Dila edged Torpedo 0-1. The predicted total of 2.2 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 were not realised, but the model’s sole selection - Under 3.5 goals with an 82% chance - hit, as the game finished with just one goal. All suggested picks settled, and the model’s call was correct, confirming the predicted outcome and the accuracy of its key selection.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dila win✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.20
1.31
1.19
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.25
1.12
1.50
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.57
1.14
1.50
0.88
1.67
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.10
1.80
1.33
1.47
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.27
1.20
1.00
1.38
1.57
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.00
0.77
2.67
1.00
1.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.8%
Under 1.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.7%
Under 2.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.0%
Under 3.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.4%
0-1 ✓
12.3%
1-0
9.5%
0-2
8.4%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
5.2%
Torpedo Kutaisi goals ↓
Dila goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
12%
8.4%
3.4%
1.0%
1
9.5%
15%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
5.2%
6.4%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
3
1.7%
2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (down), columns = Dila goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saburtalo
2.22
Dila
2.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.58
Spaeri
1.50
Gagra
1.19
Dinamo Batumi
1.19
Samgurali
1.17
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Gareji
0.97
Kolkheti Poti
0.61
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.42 points worse than Dila in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dila
1.75
Saburtalo
1.67
Spaeri
1.50
Samgurali
1.50
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.42
Gagra
1.22
Gareji
1.13
Dinamo Batumi
1.11
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.92
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila are level in goals scored per game (both 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Saburtalo
0.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.14
Samgurali
1.47
Gareji
1.50
Gagra
1.53
Telavi
1.61
Dinamo Batumi
1.64
Kolkheti Poti
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.17 goals worse than Dila in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dila
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.62
0.56
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.50
0.62
0.38
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.53
0.38
0.75
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.38
1.33
0.33
0.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.12
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.64
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.83
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.00
0.73
1.13
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.67
0.62
0.62
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.38
1.33
0.67
1.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's squad is €3m more valuable than Dila's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dila's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
KP (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →