Dinamo Batumi are tipped to win, with a 47% chance of taking the match home. The game is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, but the most likely total is 2, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance. Torpedo Kutaisi, playing at home, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded against similar opponents, while Dinamo Batumi, on the road, averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 77.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.6%, and a 26% chance of a home win, 27% draw, and 47% away win. The match preview highlights Dinamo’s recent three-game winning streak and Torpedo’s recent defeat, underscoring the favour for Dinamo.
Results analysis
The win extends Dinamo Batumi’s three-game winning run, while Torpedo Kutaisi come off a defeat. The final score was 0-3, confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which it had assigned a 47% probability. The model’s selection was correct. The suggested pick “Over 1.5” hit with a 77.7% probability. The most likely score was 1-1 at 12.9%, but the match finished 0-3. The model had also forecast a 26% chance of a home win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 47% chance of an away win. All selections settled as indicated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi win✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
1.43
1.50
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.60
0.86
1.71
1.12
1.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
0.80
2.00
1.29
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.13
2.19
1.19
2.21
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.94
1.29
2.00
1.40
1.86
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
2.54
0.92
2.50
0.83
2.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
8.1%
0-0
7.4%
2-1
6.8%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
Torpedo Kutaisi goals ↓
Dinamo Batumi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
8.9%
8.1%
4.3%
1.7%
1
6.1%
13%
9.4%
5.1%
2.0%
2
4.2%
6.8%
5.5%
2.9%
1.2%
3
1.6%
2.7%
2.1%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (down), columns = Dinamo Batumi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.39 points worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.78 goals worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 2.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.11 goals better than Dinamo Batumi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
For 5.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Batumi
For 2.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.5
9.0
0.4
0.3
0.5
28.0
-
28.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
10.2
11.5
9.0
0.7
0.5
0.9
28.0
-
28.0
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
50%
6%
4%
8%
100%
-
100%
% under line
25%
0%
50%
94%
96%
92%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.0
7.7
6.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
24.5
-
24.5
vs Stronger (4)
7.5
8.5
6.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (26)
6.0
6.0
6.0
0.2
0.3
0.0
22.0
-
22.0
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
17%
33%
0%
6%
8%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
83%
67%
100%
94%
92%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.7%
Under 9.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.43
0.64
0.25
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.07
0.73
0.14
0.71
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.33
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
0.88
0.44
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.23
1.33
0.17
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.87
0.71
1.00
1.12
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.47
1.29
0.71
0.38
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.77
1.31
0.75
1.29
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.29
0.82
1.40
0.80
1.14
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.69
1.17
0.67
1.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dinamo Batumi have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dinamo Batumi have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dinamo Batumi have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dinamo Batumi have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dila
Samgurali
Saburtalo
Telavi
Gagra
Samtredia
Shukura
Gareji
Spaeri