This highly anticipated match between Torpedo Kutaisi and Saburtalo in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga is finely balanced, with the recent form of both sides telling a compelling story. Torpedo Kutaisi is coming off a defeat, while Saburtalo is looking to build on a draw against Larne. This match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with an average of 2.8 goals expected.
The model predicts an away win for Saburtalo, with a 40% chance of victory, making it the favourite to take the three points. The home side, Torpedo Kutaisi, has a 32% chance of winning, while the draw is slightly less likely at 27%. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13% probability.
Torpedo Kutaisi has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding 2.5, particularly against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Saburtalo has shown resilience away from home, scoring 1.75 goals and conceding just 1 against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 78.3% probability. Other suggested picks include the home win (32%), the away win (40%), the draw (27%), and the home team's Over 1.5 (78.3%).
In a stunning upset, Torpedo Kutaisi defeated Saburtalo 4-3, extending their winning streak. This result is a surprise given the pre-match favourite, Saburtalo, had a 42% chance of winning. Unfortunately for the model, Saburtalo's selection was incorrect, as the model had predicted an away win. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 77.6% probability of occurrence. The most likely total goals was 2, but the actual score was much higher.
Torpedo Kutaisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.43 | 2.06 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.39 | 1.56 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 0.89 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.42 | 1.25 | 2.29 | 1.00 | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Saburtalo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 0.97 | 1.29 | 1.06 | 1.77 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.39 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.88 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.73 | 0.91 | 1.71 | 1.29 | 1.75 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Saburtalo goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 13% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Torpedo Kutaisi
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (23) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Saburtalo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.5 | 8.5 | - | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 46.0 | 46.0 | - |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 12.0 | 12.0 | - | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 46.0 | 46.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (21) | 5.0 | 5.0 | - | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 50% | - | 4% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 100% | - |
| % under line | 50% | 50% | - | 96% | 93% | 100% | 0% | 0% | - |
Torpedo Kutaisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.70 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.89 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.92 | 0.67 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Saburtalo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.24 | 0.77 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.61 | 0.22 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.91 | 0.36 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+48pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Kutaisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.50 | 0.58 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Saburtalo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 0.46 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 1.12 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.82 | 0.55 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 99.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 9.5 corners | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.24 | +6.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 09/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/04/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/03/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/10/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/09/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 27/04/24 | A | 3-3 | |
| 06/03/24 | H | 2-3 |
Torpedo Kutaisi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 26/11/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 2-4 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 5-1 |
Saburtalo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 29/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 26/11/25 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Rustavi | 8 | 19 | 75% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 2.4 | 75% | 62% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 8 | 16 | 62% | 2.0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 4 | Samgurali | 8 | 14 | 50% | 1.8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 4.0 | 88% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - |
| 5 | Gagra | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 2.4 | 88% | 50% | 12% | 5.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 6 | Dila | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Saburtalo | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 5.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 55% |
| 8 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 8 | 5 | 12% | 0.6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3.1 | 75% | 62% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Meshakhte | 8 | 4 | 12% | 0.5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 10 | Spaeri | 8 | 3 | 0% | 0.4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |