Torpedo Kutaisi’s recent 0-2 loss to Meshakhte has left them looking for a quick rebound, while Samgurali, after a 1-1 draw with Rustavi, is eager to turn away from a defensive slump. The model favours a home win, giving Torpedo a 49% chance, a draw 22%, and Samgurali 29%. The expected total goals is 3.8, with the most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.8% probability. Torpedo’s home form shows an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Samgurali’s away form averages 1.88 scored and 2.88 conceded against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 99.5%, Under 10.5 corners98.6%, Under 9.5 corners96.8%, Under 7.5 corners 96.1%, Under 8.5 corners93.2%, Away under 3.5 goals91.6%, Under 6.5 corners 91.2%, and Over 1.5 goals 89.8%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi win
48.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samgurali win
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.50
2.19
1.62
1.64
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.72
1.61
2.33
2.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (12)
2.25
1.33
2.00
1.14
2.60
1.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samgurali
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.80
1.50
1.29
1.94
2.25
vs Stronger (17)
1.71
2.18
1.56
1.56
1.88
2.88
vs Similar (13)
1.77
1.31
1.40
0.80
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.8%
Under 1.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.7%
Under 2.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
71.8%
No
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.8%
2-1
8.6%
2-2
7.0%
1-2
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
2-0
5.2%
3-2
5.0%
1-0
4.1%
Torpedo Kutaisi goals ↓
Samgurali goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
3.0%
3.1%
1.7%
0.7%
1
4.1%
8.8%
6.6%
3.6%
1.5%
2
5.2%
8.6%
7.0%
3.8%
1.6%
3
3.7%
6.1%
5.0%
2.7%
1.1%
4
2.0%
3.3%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (down), columns = Samgurali goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Torpedo Kutaisi is 1.12 points worse than Samgurali in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.62 goals worse than Samgurali in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.25 goals better than Samgurali in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 2.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Samgurali
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samgurali
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
Under 9.5
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.8%
Under 3.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Torpedo Kutaisi or Draw
71.0%
Avg Implied -
49%
22%
29%
covers Torpedo Kutaisi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi or Samgurali
77.6%
Avg Implied -
49%
22%
29%
covers Torpedo Kutaisi + Samgurali
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Samgurali
51.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
22%
29%
covers Draw + Samgurali
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5
Over
88.2%
Under
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5
Over
63.0%
Under
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 3.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Torpedo Kutaisi, so a minus line means Torpedo Kutaisi give that many goals of a start and Samgurali receive them. At -1, Torpedo Kutaisi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Torpedo Kutaisi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Torpedo Kutaisi)
Torpedo Kutaisi -2
14.5%
Draw -2
14.8%
Samgurali +2
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Torpedo Kutaisi)
Torpedo Kutaisi -1
29.2%
Draw -1
19.4%
Samgurali +1
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Torpedo Kutaisi)
Torpedo Kutaisi +1
71.0%
Draw +1
14.7%
Samgurali -1
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Torpedo Kutaisi)
Torpedo Kutaisi +2
85.7%
Draw +2
8.6%
Samgurali -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.19
0.69
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.72
1.33
0.89
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.58
1.00
0.43
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samgurali
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.71
0.43
0.81
1.31
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.88
1.38
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.77
0.20
0.00
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.83
1.00
0.94
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.89
1.00
1.11
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.75
1.00
0.71
2.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samgurali
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
0.79
0.86
1.12
0.94
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
1.18
0.56
0.89
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.54
1.20
0.80
1.25
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Torpedo Kutaisi's squad is €4m more valuable than Samgurali's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Torpedo Kutaisi's attack is €1m more valuable than Samgurali's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's midfield is €1m more valuable than Samgurali's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Samgurali have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
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Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Gagra
Dila
Saburtalo
Meshakhte
Spaeri