This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.07
1.82
0.59
2.31
1.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (9)
2.11
1.56
2.00
1.17
2.33
2.33
vs Weaker (20)
2.10
0.65
1.73
0.27
2.56
1.11
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
6.8%
2-2 ✓
6.2%
0-1
6.0%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
5.2%
Toulouse goals ↓
Lyon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
6.0%
7.4%
5.2%
2.8%
1
3.3%
9.9%
9.6%
6.8%
3.6%
2
2.7%
5.8%
6.2%
4.4%
2.3%
3
1.2%
2.5%
2.7%
1.9%
1.0%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Toulouse goals (down), columns = Lyon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.39
Lille
1.97
Lyon
1.89
Saint Etienne
1.74
Marseille
1.61
Montpellier
1.55
Nice
1.47
Reims
1.45
Nimes
1.39
Rennes
1.37
Strasbourg
1.29
Nantes
1.26
Angers
1.21
Bordeaux
1.08
Amiens
1.00
Toulouse
1.00
Monaco
0.95
Dijon
0.89
Caen
0.87
Guingamp
0.71
Toulouse is 0.89 points worse than Lyon in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.76
Lyon
1.84
Lille
1.79
Marseille
1.58
Saint Etienne
1.55
Strasbourg
1.53
Nimes
1.50
Rennes
1.45
Montpellier
1.39
Nantes
1.26
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.03
Monaco
1.00
Toulouse
0.92
Bordeaux
0.89
Amiens
0.82
Dijon
0.82
Nice
0.79
Caen
0.76
Guingamp
0.74
Toulouse is 0.92 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lille
0.87
Nice
0.92
Paris Saint Germain
0.92
Saint Etienne
1.08
Bordeaux
1.11
Montpellier
1.11
Reims
1.11
Lyon
1.24
Nantes
1.26
Strasbourg
1.26
Angers
1.29
Amiens
1.37
Marseille
1.37
Rennes
1.37
Caen
1.42
Monaco
1.50
Toulouse
1.50
Nimes
1.53
Dijon
1.58
Guingamp
1.79
Toulouse is 0.26 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Toulouse
For 4.6 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
For 4.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Toulouse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.6
10.0
4.5
4.6
4.5
28.3
28.4
28.2
vs Stronger (11)
9.9
9.5
10.4
4.5
5.3
3.6
29.3
31.2
27.0
vs Similar (24)
9.6
8.5
10.5
4.8
4.5
5.2
27.6
26.8
28.3
vs Weaker (15)
8.4
8.1
8.7
4.0
4.1
3.9
28.7
28.4
29.0
% over line
50%
44%
56%
68%
64%
72%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
50%
56%
44%
32%
36%
28%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
11.2
8.2
4.0
3.2
4.8
25.9
24.1
27.9
vs Stronger (2)
11.0
10.0
12.0
7.0
6.0
8.0
27.0
27.0
27.0
vs Similar (16)
9.4
10.8
7.2
4.1
3.1
5.7
26.2
24.0
29.8
vs Weaker (32)
9.8
11.5
8.4
3.8
3.1
4.4
25.7
23.9
27.2
% over line
58%
73%
42%
54%
38%
71%
72%
62%
83%
% under line
42%
27%
58%
46%
62%
29%
28%
38%
17%
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paris Saint Germain
10.7
Saint Etienne
10.7
Reims
10.4
Marseille
10.4
Guingamp
10.3
Dijon
10.2
Nantes
10.1
Nice
10.0
Rennes
10.0
Lyon
9.8
Monaco
9.8
Caen
9.7
Amiens
9.5
Lille
9.3
Strasbourg
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Nimes
9.3
Angers
9.2
Bordeaux
9.1
Montpellier
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nimes
4.9
Toulouse
4.5
Rennes
4.5
Nice
4.3
Nantes
4.1
Caen
4.1
Guingamp
4.0
Strasbourg
4.0
Lyon
4.0
Angers
3.9
Marseille
3.9
Paris Saint Germain
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Bordeaux
3.8
Monaco
3.8
Montpellier
3.7
Lille
3.6
Dijon
3.6
Amiens
3.3
Reims
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Toulouse
28.3
Reims
28.2
Monaco
27.6
Rennes
27.2
Guingamp
27.0
Dijon
27.0
Montpellier
26.8
Bordeaux
26.7
Amiens
26.2
Nimes
26.2
Caen
26.2
Nice
26.1
Saint Etienne
25.9
Lyon
25.9
Nantes
25.7
Marseille
25.7
Lille
25.6
Strasbourg
25.1
Paris Saint Germain
24.4
Angers
24.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
39.8%
Under 9.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.3%
Under 3.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.2%
Under 21.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.69
0.33
0.83
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
0.60
0.17
0.50
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.82
0.29
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.89
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.25
0.91
0.09
0.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.87
0.87
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.85
1.00
1.00
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.60
1.00
0.29
1.69
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (9)
1.56
0.67
1.33
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.40
0.82
0.18
1.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Toulouse · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Frank Magri24%
Yann Gboho23%
Emersonn23%
Aron Dønnum16%
Santiago Hidalgo16%
Julian Vignolo13%
Charlie Cresswell12%
Djibril Sidibé9%
Seny Koumbassa8%
Jacen Russell-Rowe7%
Dayann Methalie7%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.6%
Pape Diop5%
Alexis Vossah4%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Mario Sauer3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Kjetil Haug0%
Mark McKenzie0%
Abu Francis0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kjetil Haug33%
Dayann Methalie33%
Aron Dønnum28%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.26%
Abu Francis25%
Charlie Cresswell25%
Rafik Messali21%
Mark McKenzie21%
Pape Diop21%
Alexis Vossah20%
Emersonn19%
Frank Magri18%
Mario Sauer17%
Santiago Hidalgo16%
Rasmus Nicolaisen11%
Guillaume Restes9%
Seny Koumbassa8%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Djibril Sidibé3%
Yann Gboho3%
Jacen Russell-Rowe0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Santiago Hidalgo19%
Aron Dønnum16%
Pape Diop11%
Emersonn10%
Charlie Cresswell9%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.9%
Djibril Sidibé9%
Yann Gboho9%
Mark McKenzie6%
Frank Magri6%
Alexis Vossah4%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Dayann Methalie3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Kjetil Haug0%
Abu Francis0%
Jacen Russell-Rowe0%
Mario Sauer0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Seny Koumbassa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emersonn26%
Frank Magri18%
Pape Diop16%
Santiago Hidalgo12%
Aron Dønnum9%
Charlie Cresswell9%
Yann Gboho9%
Noah Edjouma8%
Jacen Russell-Rowe7%
Dayann Methalie3%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Djibril Sidibé0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Mark McKenzie0%
Abu Francis0%
Warren Kamanzi0%
Mario Sauer0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Seny Koumbassa0%
Alexis Vossah0%
Lyon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
MON (24)
€29m
GUI (20)
€11m
DIJ (20)
€5m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
Toulouse's squad is €179m less valuable than Lyon's (€115m vs €293m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
MON (9)
€11m
GUI (4)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
Toulouse's attack is €92m less valuable than Lyon's (€30m vs €122m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
NIC (9)
€31m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
DIJ (6)
€2m
CAE (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
Toulouse's midfield is €43m less valuable than Lyon's (€39m vs €82m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
AMI (8)
€4m
GUI (8)
€3m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Toulouse's defence is €43m less valuable than Lyon's (€46m vs €89m).
France: Ligue 1 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Lille
Saint Etienne
Marseille
Montpellier
Nice
Reims
Nimes
Rennes
Strasbourg
Nantes
Angers
Bordeaux
Amiens
Monaco
Dijon
Caen
Guingamp