This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.23
2.20
0.93
1.60
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
1.62
2.12
2.00
0.33
1.40
3.20
vs Weaker (20)
1.95
0.95
2.18
1.09
1.67
0.78
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.9%
No
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.8%
1-0
5.6%
3-1 ✓
5.2%
0-0
4.7%
Toulouse goals ↓
Monaco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.7%
4.4%
2.2%
0.9%
1
5.6%
11%
7.7%
3.9%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.8%
6.8%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.4%
5.2%
4.0%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.5%
2.3%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Toulouse goals (down), columns = Monaco goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Monaco
2.50
Paris Saint Germain
2.29
Nice
2.05
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.63
Bordeaux
1.55
Nantes
1.34
Saint Etienne
1.32
Guingamp
1.32
Rennes
1.32
Lille
1.21
Angers
1.21
Toulouse
1.16
Metz
1.13
Montpellier
1.03
Caen
0.97
Dijon
0.97
Lorient
0.95
Nancy
0.92
Bastia
0.89
Toulouse is 1.34 points worse than Monaco in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Monaco
2.82
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lyon
2.11
Nice
1.66
Marseille
1.50
Bordeaux
1.39
Montpellier
1.26
Guingamp
1.21
Dijon
1.21
Lorient
1.16
Saint Etienne
1.08
Lille
1.05
Nantes
1.05
Angers
1.05
Metz
1.03
Toulouse
0.97
Caen
0.95
Rennes
0.95
Bastia
0.76
Nancy
0.76
Toulouse is 1.84 goals worse than Monaco in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 2.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.71
Monaco
0.82
Nice
0.95
Marseille
1.08
Toulouse
1.08
Saint Etienne
1.11
Rennes
1.11
Bordeaux
1.13
Lille
1.24
Lyon
1.26
Angers
1.29
Nancy
1.37
Guingamp
1.39
Nantes
1.42
Bastia
1.50
Dijon
1.53
Caen
1.71
Montpellier
1.74
Lorient
1.84
Metz
1.89
Toulouse is 0.26 goals worse than Monaco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Toulouse
For 4.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 13.6 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monaco
For 4.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 12.8 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Toulouse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (46)
8.9
8.7
9.1
4.6
4.2
4.9
29.3
29.5
29.0
vs Stronger (13)
9.0
8.8
9.1
4.4
4.0
4.7
27.9
26.7
29.0
vs Similar (19)
8.9
9.2
8.6
4.2
3.9
4.4
28.6
28.9
28.4
vs Weaker (14)
8.9
8.0
9.9
5.4
4.9
5.9
31.4
32.9
29.9
% over line
39%
36%
42%
67%
68%
67%
87%
91%
83%
% under line
61%
64%
58%
33%
32%
33%
13%
9%
17%
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (46)
10.3
9.7
10.8
4.2
4.2
4.2
28.0
28.0
28.0
vs Stronger (3)
8.7
7.0
12.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
19.0
13.0
vs Similar (13)
9.5
9.2
9.9
4.5
5.0
4.1
30.2
29.5
30.7
vs Weaker (30)
10.7
10.3
11.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
28.2
28.7
27.8
% over line
48%
43%
52%
63%
52%
74%
89%
87%
91%
% under line
52%
57%
48%
37%
48%
26%
11%
13%
9%
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Metz
11.5
Saint Etienne
10.6
Caen
10.4
Monaco
10.3
Lille
10.0
Marseille
9.8
Bordeaux
9.7
Montpellier
9.7
Angers
9.6
Lorient
9.5
Dijon
9.5
Rennes
9.4
Nice
9.3
Guingamp
9.2
Paris Saint Germain
9.0
Nantes
9.0
Toulouse
8.9
Nancy
8.6
Lyon
8.5
Bastia
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lille
4.8
Bastia
4.8
Toulouse
4.6
Lyon
4.5
Guingamp
4.4
Metz
4.2
Monaco
4.2
Nantes
4.1
Nice
4.1
Bordeaux
4.0
Angers
4.0
Saint Etienne
4.0
Montpellier
3.8
Marseille
3.8
Lorient
3.7
Rennes
3.7
Nancy
3.6
Dijon
3.6
Caen
3.5
Paris Saint Germain
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lille
30.8
Toulouse
29.3
Guingamp
28.2
Lyon
28.2
Bastia
28.1
Monaco
28.0
Marseille
27.9
Saint Etienne
27.8
Nancy
27.4
Nantes
27.4
Montpellier
26.6
Bordeaux
26.5
Nice
25.5
Angers
25.5
Lorient
25.2
Metz
24.8
Caen
24.6
Rennes
23.8
Dijon
22.1
Paris Saint Germain
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.5%
Under 9.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.5%
Under 3.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.8%
Under 21.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.30
0.40
0.07
0.07
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.44
0.25
0.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (12)
0.08
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.38
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.22
0.57
0.14
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.93
0.40
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.00
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.40
1.00
0.55
0.44
0.22
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.40
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
1.00
1.25
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.83
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.67
2.00
0.57
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.73
1.27
0.53
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.25
1.67
0.33
0.60
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
0.55
1.18
0.55
1.22
0.56
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Toulouse · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Frank Magri24%
Yann Gboho23%
Emersonn23%
Aron Dønnum16%
Santiago Hidalgo16%
Julian Vignolo13%
Charlie Cresswell12%
Djibril Sidibé9%
Seny Koumbassa8%
Jacen Russell-Rowe7%
Dayann Methalie7%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.6%
Pape Diop5%
Alexis Vossah4%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Mario Sauer3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Kjetil Haug0%
Mark McKenzie0%
Abu Francis0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kjetil Haug33%
Dayann Methalie33%
Aron Dønnum28%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.26%
Abu Francis25%
Charlie Cresswell25%
Rafik Messali21%
Mark McKenzie21%
Pape Diop21%
Alexis Vossah20%
Emersonn19%
Frank Magri18%
Mario Sauer17%
Santiago Hidalgo16%
Rasmus Nicolaisen11%
Guillaume Restes9%
Seny Koumbassa8%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Djibril Sidibé3%
Yann Gboho3%
Jacen Russell-Rowe0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Santiago Hidalgo19%
Aron Dønnum16%
Pape Diop11%
Emersonn10%
Charlie Cresswell9%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.9%
Djibril Sidibé9%
Yann Gboho9%
Mark McKenzie6%
Frank Magri6%
Alexis Vossah4%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Dayann Methalie3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Kjetil Haug0%
Abu Francis0%
Jacen Russell-Rowe0%
Mario Sauer0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Seny Koumbassa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emersonn26%
Frank Magri18%
Pape Diop16%
Santiago Hidalgo12%
Aron Dønnum9%
Charlie Cresswell9%
Yann Gboho9%
Noah Edjouma8%
Jacen Russell-Rowe7%
Dayann Methalie3%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Djibril Sidibé0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Mark McKenzie0%
Abu Francis0%
Warren Kamanzi0%
Mario Sauer0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Seny Koumbassa0%
Alexis Vossah0%
Monaco · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paris Brunner75%
Mika Biereth50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Eric Dier25%
Lamine Camara25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Lukáš Hrádecký25%
Denis Zakaria25%
Vanderson25%
Nazinho25%
Lamine Camara25%
Anis Soubeir25%
Eric Dier0%
Mika Biereth0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Paris Brunner0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazinho50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Eric Dier25%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Lamine Camara0%
Paris Brunner0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paris Brunner50%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Aleksandr Golovin0%
Eric Dier0%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Lamine Camara0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
NAN (26)
€13m
GUI (20)
€11m
BAS (19)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
CAE (18)
€4m
Toulouse's squad is €211m less valuable than Monaco's (€115m vs €326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
NAN (9)
€5m
BAS (9)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Toulouse's attack is €119m less valuable than Monaco's (€30m vs €148m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
NAN (6)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
BAS (3)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
Toulouse's midfield is €45m less valuable than Monaco's (€39m vs €84m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
NAN (11)
€6m
GUI (8)
€3m
BAS (7)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Toulouse's defence is €47m less valuable than Monaco's (€46m vs €93m).
France: Ligue 1 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Nice
Lyon
Marseille
Bordeaux
Nantes
Saint Etienne
Rennes
Guingamp
Lille
Angers
Metz
Montpellier
Dijon
Caen
Lorient
Nancy
Bastia