PythiaFootballBETA
The match between Tranmere and Grimsby is expected to be a closely contested draw, with recent form suggesting that both teams are evenly matched. Tranmere comes off a draw against Grimsby, while Grimsby is coming off a draw against Tranmere, with both teams sharing the spoils 1-1 in their previous meeting.
The model predicts an away win for Grimsby, with a 49% probability, while the home win percentage stands at 25% and the draw percentage at 26%. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.2%. The model's selection is an away win, and the expected total goals stands at 2.9.
Tranmere's home form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 0.92 goals and conceding 1.92. Grimsby's away form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1.36 goals and conceding 0.91. The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 79.7%.
In a stunning upset, Tranmere's home draw extends their recent run of inconsistent results, having come off a draw against Grimsby in their previous match. The final score was 1-1, resulting in a draw for both teams. The pre-match favourite, Grimsby, was the model's selection with a 49% probability of winning. Unfortunately for the model, its call was wrong. The model did correctly suggest that the match would go over 1.5 goals, with an 80% probability, and this proved to be a hit.
Tranmere| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.87 | 0.87 | 1.93 | 1.13 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 2.60 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.08 | 1.72 | 0.85 | 1.92 | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Grimsby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 0.97 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.68 | 0.82 | 2.00 | 0.73 | 1.36 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Grimsby goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 12% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
TranmereGrimsbyTranmere| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 22.9 | 23.5 | 22.3 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 21.9 | 22.8 | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (42) | 10.0 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 23.1 | 23.6 | 22.6 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 46% | 54% | 60% | 62% | 58% | 66% | 71% | 62% |
| % under line | 50% | 54% | 46% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 34% | 29% | 38% |
Grimsby| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 12.4 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 24.4 | 25.3 | 23.8 |
| vs Similar (38) | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 23.8 | 23.6 | 24.1 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 21.0 | 21.5 | 20.7 |
| % over line | 58% | 64% | 52% | 62% | 60% | 64% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| % under line | 42% | 36% | 48% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 04/03/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/10/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 27/01/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/10/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/12/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/21 | A | 0-0 |
Tranmere| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-3 |
Grimsby| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Notts County | 49 | 87 | 53% | 1.8 | 78 | 52 | +26 | 2.7 | 73% | 55% | 27% | 9.3 | 46% | 4.4 | 65% | 24.2 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 2 |  Bromley | 46 | 87 | 52% | 1.9 | 71 | 46 | +25 | 2.5 | 76% | 52% | 28% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.8 | 59% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 3 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 86 | 52% | 1.9 | 86 | 45 | +41 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.8 | 61% | 23.4 | 61% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 4 |  Salford | 49 | 85 | 53% | 1.7 | 65 | 57 | +8 | 2.5 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 9.9 | 52% | 3.7 | 41% | 24.9 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 5 |  Cambridge | 46 | 82 | 48% | 1.8 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 2.2 | 72% | 35% | 13% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.1 | 35% | 22.9 | 59% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 6 |  Chesterfield | 48 | 80 | 44% | 1.7 | 71 | 57 | +14 | 2.7 | 71% | 44% | 29% | 10.3 | 59% | 4.2 | 57% | 21.8 | 46% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 7 | Grimsby | 48 | 79 | 46% | 1.6 | 77 | 54 | +23 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 33% | 10.5 | 54% | 4.1 | 65% | 23.9 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 8 |  Barnet | 46 | 76 | 46% | 1.7 | 70 | 53 | +17 | 2.7 | 76% | 48% | 30% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.8 | 65% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 9 |  Swindon | 46 | 75 | 48% | 1.6 | 70 | 59 | +11 | 2.8 | 85% | 63% | 28% | 11.2 | 74% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.7 | 37% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 10 |  Oldham | 46 | 68 | 39% | 1.5 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 2.3 | 65% | 48% | 20% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.9 | 63% | 25.0 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 11 |  Crewe | 46 | 67 | 41% | 1.5 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 2.7 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 52% | 25.5 | 74% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 |  Colchester | 46 | 66 | 39% | 1.4 | 62 | 49 | +13 | 2.4 | 67% | 35% | 20% | 9.1 | 37% | 4.1 | 63% | 24.9 | 76% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 13 |  Walsall | 46 | 65 | 39% | 1.4 | 56 | 56 | +0 | 2.4 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.0 | 59% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.1 | 61% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 14 |  Bristol Rvs | 46 | 62 | 41% | 1.3 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.7 | 76% | 24.2 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 15 |  Fleetwood Town | 46 | 61 | 33% | 1.3 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 2.5 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 54% | 23.0 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 16 |  Accrington | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.3 | 67% | 37% | 20% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.2 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 17 |  Gillingham | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 53 | 72 | -19 | 2.7 | 70% | 46% | 30% | 9.5 | 43% | 4.0 | 61% | 23.9 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 18 |  Cheltenham | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 53 | 79 | -26 | 2.9 | 80% | 48% | 33% | 9.6 | 54% | 3.6 | 48% | 22.7 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 19 |  Shrewsbury | 46 | 49 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 2.4 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.3 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 20 |  Newport County | 46 | 43 | 26% | 0.9 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 2.7 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 9.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 54% | 23.5 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 21 | Tranmere | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 54 | 79 | -25 | 2.9 | 83% | 54% | 35% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.8 | 57% | 22.4 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 22 |  Crawley Town | 46 | 40 | 17% | 0.9 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 2.4 | 74% | 43% | 26% | 12.0 | 78% | 4.1 | 59% | 25.7 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 23 |  Harrogate | 46 | 39 | 22% | 0.8 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.3 | 70% | 37% | 17% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.1 | 39% | 21.7 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 24 |  Barrow | 46 | 36 | 20% | 0.8 | 45 | 78 | -33 | 2.7 | 72% | 63% | 33% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.3 | 48% | 20.4 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 46% |