The model favours an away win, with Oldham holding a 43% chance of triumph, Tranmere 28%, and a draw 28%. The expected total is 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% chance. Tranmere, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Oldham on the road averages 1.43 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (98.2%, edge 2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.0%), Under 5.5 (94.9%, edge 1%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.2%). Tranmere’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 2-2 draw with Rotherham, contrasts with Oldham’s recent draw-heavy form, ending 1-1 against Fleetwood Town.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tranmere win
28.4%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 2.98
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.11
Dafabet
3.10
Betano
3.10
1xBet
3.06
10Bet
3.05
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.25
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Unibet
3.25
Oldham win
43.3%
Avg Implied 40.6% · @ 2.28
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.32
Dafabet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tranmere
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.73
0.88
1.62
1.00
1.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
-
-
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.58
0.80
1.60
1.18
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.07
1.64
0.64
1.44
1.44
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
0.80
1.67
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.52
1.12
1.64
0.64
1.43
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.0%
@ 1.30+3.7%
Under 1.5
25.0%
@ 3.24-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
10Bet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.9%
@ 1.99+1.7%
Under 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.78-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.05
SBO
2.00
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.0%
@ 3.44+0.1%
Under 3.5
73.0%
@ 1.27-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
@ 1.75+1.1%
No
46.0%
@ 1.96-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
No
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.97
BetVictor
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.89+5.9%
0-1
9.4%@ 7.25+3.2%
1-2
9.1%@ 8.64+3.9%
0-0
8.4%@ 8.94+3.4%
0-2
7.9%@ 10.46+3.6%
1-0
7.1%@ 8.47+1.8%
2-1
7.1%@ 9.96+2.6%
2-2
5.2%@ 13.05+1.8%
Tranmere goals ↓
Oldham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
9.4%
7.9%
3.9%
1.4%
1
7.1%
14%
9.1%
4.5%
1.6%
2
4.8%
7.1%
5.2%
2.6%
0.9%
3
1.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tranmere goals (down), columns = Oldham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Tranmere is 0.59 points worse than Oldham in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Tranmere is 0.13 goals worse than Oldham in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Tranmere is 0.76 goals worse than Oldham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Tranmere is 0.5 percentage points better than Oldham in terms of average possession (49% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tranmere
For 4.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oldham
For 4.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tranmere
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.5
3.8
4.0
3.7
22.7
23.1
22.3
vs Stronger (7)
9.8
10.3
9.3
3.4
3.2
3.7
20.7
22.3
19.0
vs Similar (42)
10.1
9.7
10.6
3.9
4.1
3.7
22.9
22.9
22.8
vs Weaker (1)
7.0
7.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
29.0
29.0
-
% over line
53%
44%
62%
56%
54%
58%
59%
60%
58%
% under line
47%
56%
38%
44%
46%
42%
41%
40%
42%
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.4
3.9
3.9
3.8
24.7
24.3
25.0
vs Stronger (7)
10.5
9.3
11.7
2.3
3.0
1.8
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (43)
10.1
9.9
10.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
25.2
24.7
25.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
52%
68%
60%
58%
62%
71%
70%
72%
% under line
40%
48%
32%
40%
42%
38%
29%
30%
28%
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
11.4
York
11.2
Walsall
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Rochdale
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cheltenham
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Newport County
23.2
Walsall
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Tranmere
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.1
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Port Vale
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Swindon
20.3
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.6%
@ 2.09+8.2%
Under 9.5
47.4%
@ 1.67-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.19
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
1.87
Under
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.1%
Under 21.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tranmere or Draw
56.7%
Avg Implied 59.5% · @ 1.56
Edge
-2.8%
28%
28%
43%
covers Tranmere + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Tranmere or Oldham
71.7%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
+0.0%
28%
28%
43%
covers Tranmere + Oldham
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Draw or Oldham
71.6%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.35
Edge
+2.8%
28%
28%
43%
covers Draw + Oldham
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tranmere over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
@ 1.35-0.3%
Under
31.6%
@ 2.97+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.01
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Tranmere over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
@ 2.73-1.9%
Under
67.9%
@ 1.41+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Marathonbet
2.81
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Tranmere over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
@ 7.01-2.2%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.07+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.20
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Tranmere over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
@ 16.12-2.9%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Oldham over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
@ 1.25+3.1%
Under
22.9%
@ 3.57-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.68
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Oldham over/under 1.5
Over
43.4%
@ 2.27+2.5%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.57-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.29
Pinnacle
2.29
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Oldham over/under 2.5
Over
18.5%
@ 5.28+0.9%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.13-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Oldham over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
@ 12.12-1.6%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tranmere, so a minus line means Tranmere give that many goals of a start and Oldham receive them. At -1, Tranmere must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tranmere win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tranmere)
Tranmere -2
3.7%
@ 13.10-3.1%
Draw -2
8.2%
@ 7.55-3.6%
Oldham +2
88.1%
@ 1.09+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Tranmere)
Tranmere -1
11.9%
@ 6.33-2.3%
Draw -1
16.5%
@ 4.49-3.6%
Oldham +1
71.6%
@ 1.37+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
10Bet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Away
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Handicap +1 (Tranmere)
Tranmere +1
56.7%
@ 1.57-0.7%
Draw +1
21.4%
@ 3.93-1.4%
Oldham -1
21.9%
@ 4.55+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Unibet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Draw
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Away
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Handicap +2 (Tranmere)
Tranmere +2
78.1%
@ 1.15+1.4%
Draw +2
13.4%
@ 6.08-1.1%
Oldham -2
8.5%
@ 10.03-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tranmere
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.73
0.38
0.81
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
-
-
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.65
0.33
0.80
0.27
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.40
0.45
0.36
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.0%
@ 1.39+3.5%
Under 0.5
30.0%
@ 2.77-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Under
William Hil
2.90
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.0%
@ 2.84+1.3%
Under 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.38-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.95
Pinnacle
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
1xBet
2.85
Under
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 7.56+0.9%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.06-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tranmere over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.1%
@ 2.23-5.4%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.58+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.24
10Bet
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Tranmere over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.5%
@ 7.88-2.3%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.05+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.70
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Tranmere over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
@ 19.25-3.9%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Oldham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.6%
@ 2.01+5.6%
Under
48.4%
@ 1.71-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Oldham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.1%
@ 6.42+2.7%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.08-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Oldham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
@ 17.38-1.2%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tranmere
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.50
0.81
0.79
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
-
-
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.92
0.47
0.80
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.21
0.21
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.40
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.72
1.18
0.27
0.57
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
@ 1.24+4.2%
Under 0.5
21.2%
@ 3.64-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
William Hil
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.7%
@ 2.17+0.8%
Under 1.5
56.3%
@ 1.63-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
William Hil
2.15
Unibet
2.15
Under
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.5%
@ 4.78-1.0%
Under 2.5
81.5%
@ 1.16+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
William Hil
4.80
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tranmere over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.9%
@ 1.91-2.8%
Under
54.1%
@ 1.80+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Tranmere over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.2%
@ 5.61-2.3%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.11+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Tranmere over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 16.00-3.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Oldham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.5%
@ 1.70+5.8%
Under
39.5%
@ 2.04-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Oldham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.6%
@ 4.45+2.7%
Under
76.4%
@ 1.17-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Oldham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
@ 10.25-3.2%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.2%
Under 5.5
94.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+2.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+1.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-
+2.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
88.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+2.2%
Away +2 handicap
88.1%
1.09
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-
+6.7%
Under 4.5
87.3%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.06
+1.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.05
-0.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-
+2.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-2.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.16
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+1.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
81.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
-0.9%
Under 5.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+4.2%
Home +2 handicap
78.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-
+1.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+3.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-2.7%
Over 2.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+3.7%
Under 3.5
73.0%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
-0.1%
Home or Away
71.7%
1.29
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
+0.0%
Draw or Away
71.6%
1.35
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+2.8%
Away +1 handicap
71.6%
1.37
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
+5.9%
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
1.22
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-3.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.0%
1.39
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
+3.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tranmere
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Ince50%
Z. Okoro50%
Jordan Davies33%
Charlie Whitaker33%
J. Turnbull0%
N. Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
W. Vaulks0%
S. Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
J. Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
J. Slater0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordan Davies67%
Charlie Whitaker33%
N. Smith25%
Tom Ince25%
S. Finley25%
Joe Ironside25%
J. Senior25%
Bobby Faulkner25%
J. Slater25%
J. Turnbull0%
Tom Conlon0%
W. Vaulks0%
Z. Okoro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turnbull25%
Tom Conlon25%
J. Senior25%
J. Slater25%
N. Smith0%
Tom Ince0%
W. Vaulks0%
S. Finley0%
Jordan Davies0%
Joe Ironside0%
Charlie Whitaker0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Z. Okoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
W. Vaulks33%
Jordan Davies33%
Charlie Whitaker33%
Tom Ince25%
Z. Okoro25%
J. Turnbull0%
N. Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
S. Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
J. Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
J. Slater0%
Oldham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mike Fondop25%
Keenan Appiah-Forson25%
C. Kavanagh25%
E. Nevitt25%
K. Drummond25%
T. Pett0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
J. Robson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
F. Fawunmi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Hudson25%
Donervon Daniels25%
Ryan Delaney25%
O. Norburn25%
C. Kavanagh25%
E. Nevitt25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
J. Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
F. Fawunmi0%
K. Drummond0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Kavanagh50%
J. Robson25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
E. Nevitt0%
F. Fawunmi0%
K. Drummond0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Kavanagh50%
F. Fawunmi33%
Gus Scott-Morriss25%
K. Drummond25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
J. Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
E. Nevitt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Tranmere and Oldham have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Tranmere and Oldham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Tranmere and Oldham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Tranmere and Oldham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale