Transinvest 2 are favoured to win this match, with a 46 % chance of victory, 26 % for a draw and 27 % for Hegelmann II. The expected total is 2.9 goals, but the model predicts a 1-1 scoreline as the most likely result, with a 12.4 % probability. Transinvest 2, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded, while Hegelmann II, away against a weaker side, average 1.5 scored and 3.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99 %), Under 6.5 (97 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2 %), Under 5.5 (92.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.1 %), Home +2 handicap (88.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (86.9 %) and Under 4.5 (82.8 %). Both teams are coming off wins, with Transinvest 2 last beating Atmosfera 2-0 and Hegelmann II last defeating Ekranas 3-2.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Transinvest 2 win
47.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II win
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Transinvest 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
2.29
1.25
1.25
2.00
3.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
2.67
1.00
1.67
2.00
3.67
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.00
1.25
1.94
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
1.75
1.33
1.83
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.91
0.17
1.83
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
2.57
2.75
2.25
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Transinvest 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
0-1
5.4%
Transinvest 2 goals ↓
Hegelmann II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.4%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.0%
12%
6.8%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.5%
5.8%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.4%
5.4%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Transinvest 2 goals (down), columns = Hegelmann II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Transinvest 2 is 0.29 points worse than Hegelmann II in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Transinvest 2 is 0.43 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Transinvest 2 is 0.29 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Transinvest 2 or Draw
73.7%
Avg Implied -
48%
26%
26%
covers Transinvest 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 or Hegelmann II
73.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
26%
26%
covers Transinvest 2 + Hegelmann II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hegelmann II
52.4%
Avg Implied -
48%
26%
26%
covers Draw + Hegelmann II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Transinvest 2 over/under 0.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 1.5
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 2.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Transinvest 2, so a minus line means Transinvest 2 give that many goals of a start and Hegelmann II receive them. At -1, Transinvest 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Transinvest 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Transinvest 2)
Transinvest 2 -2
11.3%
Draw -2
14.8%
Hegelmann II +2
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Transinvest 2)
Transinvest 2 -1
26.1%
Draw -1
21.5%
Hegelmann II +1
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Transinvest 2)
Transinvest 2 +1
73.7%
Draw +1
15.1%
Hegelmann II -1
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Transinvest 2)
Transinvest 2 +2
88.8%
Draw +2
7.6%
Hegelmann II -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Transinvest 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.29
0.50
0.50
0.67
2.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.56
1.00
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.83
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.18
1.18
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.14
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Transinvest 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.6%
Under 0.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
Under 1.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.2%
Under 2.5
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Transinvest 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Transinvest 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.75
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
0.33
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.69
0.94
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.92
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.73
0.17
0.83
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Transinvest 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.0%
Under 0.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.4%
Under 1.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.8%
Under 2.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Transinvest 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Transinvest 2 and Hegelmann II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Transinvest 2 and Hegelmann II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Transinvest 2 and Hegelmann II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Transinvest 2 and Hegelmann II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →