The contest between TransINVEST Vilnius and Banga is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 35 % versus a 31 % chance of a draw and a 34 % chance of an away victory. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 scoreline, carrying a 14.6 % probability, while the expected total of goals sits at 2.3, with the most probable total being two goals at 28 %. TransINVEST Vilnius, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, whereas Banga, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages no goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s single selection is Under 3.5, with an 80.3 % chance. Recent form adds intrigue: Vilnius comes off a win and Banga a draw. All figures are presented as percentages, and every selection is listed with its probability.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as TransINVEST Vilnius failed to live up to the pre-match favourite, a home win predicted with a 35 % probability, and the model was wrong. The final score was 1-3, an away win that left the model’s call incorrect. The game’s most likely total was two goals, with a 28 % chance, but the match produced three. The suggested pick of Under 3.5, with an 80.3 % probability, missed as the total exceeded the threshold. The home side, coming off a win, had an average of 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, while Banga, after a draw, averaged no goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The outcome was a clear reversal of expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius win✗ Miss
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Banga win✓ Hit
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
0.63
2.31
0.69
3.35
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.14
0.43
1.00
0.67
3.00
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
3.13
0.70
2.70
0.70
3.46
0.69
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.10
0.92
1.00
1.12
1.18
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.00
0.86
0.86
1.00
1.11
vs Weaker (4)
4.00
0.50
6.00
0.00
3.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
10.4%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.5%
TransINVEST Vilnius goals ↓
Banga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
6.7%
7.6%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.6%
2.9%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (down), columns = Banga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.40
Banga
1.67
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
0.83
Hegelmann Litauen
0.71
Šiauliai
0.43
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.29 points worse than Banga in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.40
Banga
1.67
Hegelmann Litauen
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Šiauliai
0.71
Panevėžys
0.67
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.54 goals worse than Banga in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.20
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
Panevėžys
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.71
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.25 goals better than Banga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.30
1.00
0.38
1.53
0.24
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.14
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.48
0.35
1.20
0.40
1.69
0.31
Clean sheet %
80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.38
0.46
0.53
0.29
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.57
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.33
1.31
0.31
1.82
0.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.29
0.67
0.33
2.00
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
1.65
0.35
1.50
0.30
1.77
0.38
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.54
0.54
0.59
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
1.10
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.56
0.43
0.29
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
4.00
0.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Džiugas Telšiai
Panevėžys
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai