The model favours an away win, with FK Zalgiris Vilnius holding a 52 % chance of triumph, a 25 % draw probability and a 23 % home victory chance. The expected total goals sit at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.4 % chance. TransINVEST Vilnius, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Zalgiris, on the road, averages 1.14 scored and 2.29 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6 %), Under 6.5 (96.3 %), Under 5.5 (90.9 %), Away +2 handicap (90.3 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (87.9 %), and Away over 0.5 goals (84.7 %). Both sides finish recent matches with a win, the home side having edged 3-0 at Šiauliai and the away side securing 2-0 over Džiugas Telšiai.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius win
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win
50.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
0.87
2.14
0.93
2.94
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.70
0.90
1.50
0.75
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
3.00
0.85
2.40
1.00
3.60
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.71
1.07
1.50
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.87
1.86
1.43
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.80
1.57
0.71
2.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.0%
0-1
7.8%
2-1
6.5%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
1-3
5.8%
TransINVEST Vilnius goals ↓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
7.8%
8.0%
4.8%
2.2%
1
4.9%
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.6%
6.5%
5.8%
3.5%
1.6%
3
1.4%
2.6%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (down), columns = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.62 points worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
TransINVEST Vilnius is 1.04 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.08 goals better than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
TransINVEST Vilnius or Draw
49.8%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers TransINVEST Vilnius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
74.7%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers TransINVEST Vilnius + FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
75.5%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers Draw + FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to TransINVEST Vilnius, so a minus line means TransINVEST Vilnius give that many goals of a start and FK Zalgiris Vilnius receive them. At -1, TransINVEST Vilnius must win by two or more to land; a one-goal TransINVEST Vilnius win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius -2
3.3%
Draw -2
7.0%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +2
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius -1
10.3%
Draw -1
14.2%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +1
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius +1
49.8%
Draw +1
21.7%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -1
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius +2
71.5%
Draw +2
15.6%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -2
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.00
0.43
1.38
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.45
1.20
0.50
1.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.00
0.86
0.57
0.25
1.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
0.57
0.29
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.56
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.00
0.64
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.87
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.43
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
TransINVEST Vilnius's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TransINVEST Vilnius and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
TransINVEST Vilnius's midfield is €2m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TransINVEST Vilnius and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai