The contest between TransINVEST Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away victory. The predicted probabilities are 38% for a TransINVEST win, 28% for a draw and 34% for a Hegelmann win. The average number of goals expected is 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% probability.
TransINVEST, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. Hegelmann, on the road, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Under 4.5 (85.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.9%) and Home +2 handicap (84.1%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius win
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win
37.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
0.87
2.14
0.93
2.94
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.70
0.90
1.50
0.75
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
3.00
0.85
2.40
1.00
3.60
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.83
1.17
1.11
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.55
2.12
1.38
0.75
1.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.70
1.25
0.75
1.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.9%
Under 2.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.6%
Under 3.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.2%
1-0
7.1%
0-0
7.1%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
TransINVEST Vilnius goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
7.2%
6.0%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.1%
13%
8.5%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.3%
5.9%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.7%
3.9%
2.8%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.62 points better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.12 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.75 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
TransINVEST Vilnius or Draw
63.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers TransINVEST Vilnius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius or Hegelmann Litauen
72.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers TransINVEST Vilnius + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen
64.4%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5
Over
76.1%
Under
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to TransINVEST Vilnius, so a minus line means TransINVEST Vilnius give that many goals of a start and Hegelmann Litauen receive them. At -1, TransINVEST Vilnius must win by two or more to land; a one-goal TransINVEST Vilnius win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius -2
6.2%
Draw -2
10.8%
Hegelmann Litauen +2
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius -1
17.0%
Draw -1
18.6%
Hegelmann Litauen +1
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius +1
63.0%
Draw +1
19.0%
Hegelmann Litauen -1
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius +2
82.1%
Draw +2
11.2%
Hegelmann Litauen -2
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.00
0.43
1.38
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.45
1.20
0.50
1.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.92
0.33
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
1.12
0.38
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.56
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.56
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Šiauliai
FK Trakai