TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris Result & Analysis

TransINVEST Vilnius face Kauno Žalgiris in a match the model deems most likely to end with an away win, a 57% chance compared with 27% for a draw and 16% for a home victory. The average number of goals expected is 2.3, with the single most probable total of two goals. The scoreline that the model predicts as most likely is 0-1 for the visitors, a 14.5% probability. TransINVEST Vilnius, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, have been scoring an average of 1.83 goals per game while conceding 1.17. Kauno Žalgiris, on the road against a comparable side, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 goals with a 79.5% probability. The recent form shows Vilnius coming off a win, while Žalgiris are coming off a draw.

The upset came early, with TransINVEST Vilnius snatching a 3-2 win after a 3-0 victory over Šiauliai, extending their recent run. The pre-match favourite was Kauno Žalgiris, chosen by the model with a 57% probability of winning, but the model was wrong as the home side prevailed. The model’s other selection, Under 3.5 goals, had a 79.5% chance yet missed, with five goals scored. The most likely scoreline, 0-1, carried a 14.5% probability, while 1-1 and 0-2 each had 12.5%. The expected total of 2.3 goals fell short of the actual five, confirming the model’s predictions were off.