TransINVEST Vilnius face a tough test at home against Kauno Žalgiris, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total is 2.3 goals, centring on a 1-1 draw as the single most likely scoreline at 13.7%. Home form shows an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opposition, while away side averages only 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded on the road. The match carries a 22% chance of a home victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 48% chance of an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.7%), Away +2 handicap (92.1%) and Under 4.5 (91.1%). The home side is coming off a win, while the away side follows a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius win
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
0.87
2.14
0.93
2.94
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.70
0.90
1.50
0.75
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
3.00
0.85
2.40
1.00
3.60
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.87
2.07
0.80
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.71
0.79
2.22
0.78
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.42
2.25
0.75
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
12.7%
0-0
10.7%
0-2
10.3%
1-2
9.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
5.0%
TransINVEST Vilnius goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
13%
10%
5.0%
1.8%
1
7.2%
14%
9.1%
4.4%
1.6%
2
3.7%
5.5%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.83 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.88 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
TransINVEST Vilnius is 1.05 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
TransINVEST Vilnius or Draw
50.4%
Avg Implied -
21%
29%
50%
covers TransINVEST Vilnius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius or Kauno Žalgiris
71.1%
Avg Implied -
21%
29%
50%
covers TransINVEST Vilnius + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
78.6%
Avg Implied -
21%
29%
50%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
58.7%
Under
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to TransINVEST Vilnius, so a minus line means TransINVEST Vilnius give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris receive them. At -1, TransINVEST Vilnius must win by two or more to land; a one-goal TransINVEST Vilnius win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.6%
Kauno Žalgiris +2
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius -1
7.5%
Draw -1
13.9%
Kauno Žalgiris +1
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius +1
50.4%
Draw +1
24.0%
Kauno Žalgiris -1
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (TransINVEST Vilnius)
TransINVEST Vilnius +2
74.4%
Draw +2
15.5%
Kauno Žalgiris -2
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.00
0.43
1.38
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.45
1.20
0.50
1.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.21
1.00
0.11
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.08
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.56
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.22
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
TransINVEST Vilnius's squad is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€5m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TransINVEST Vilnius's attack is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TransINVEST Vilnius's defence is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →