The model favours an away win, with a 44% chance for Panevėžys, 29% for TransINVEST Vilnius and 26% for a draw. The expected total of 3.0 goals sits above the most likely total of 2, which carries a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance, a tidy reflection of both sides’ balanced scoring and conceding averages: TransINVEST Vilnius averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Panevėžys nets 1.5 and concedes 1.5 on the road. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 goals at 80.5%. Both teams are coming off wins - Vilnius after a 3-0 victory over Šiauliai and Panevėžys after a 2-0 win over FK Zalgiris Vilnius - suggesting a competitive match where the visitors have a slight edge. The overall shape points to a closely contested game with a high likelihood of goals, favouring Panevėžys to secure the win.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 0-0 stalemate, a shock for the pre-match favourite, the away side, who were tipped to win with a 44% probability. The model’s call was wrong, as the game finished in a draw. The home side, TransINVEST Vilnius, had just won 3-0 at home, extending a winning run, while Panevėžys also came off a 2-0 victory away. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, missed, with an 80.5% probability of scoring more than one goal. The most likely score was 1-1 at 12.3%, followed by 1-2 at 9.2% and 0-1 at 7.5%. The expected total was three goals, yet no goals were scored.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.53
1.47
1.27
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.05
1.63
1.55
1.64
0.38
1.62
vs Weaker (11)
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.29
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.40
0.81
1.06
1.43
1.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.24
0.82
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
0-0 ✓
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
TransINVEST Vilnius goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
7.5%
7.1%
3.9%
1.6%
1
5.7%
12%
9.2%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.5%
7.3%
6.0%
3.3%
1.4%
3
2.0%
3.2%
2.6%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.08 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.03 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Šiauliai
1.39
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.28 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.74
0.45
0.64
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.27
0.75
0.50
1.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.44
0.50
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.52
0.36
0.27
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
1.00
0.87
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.89
1.09
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.73
0.75
0.50
0.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.38
0.56
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.71
0.45
0.73
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
TransINVEST Vilnius's midfield is €1m less valuable than Panevėžys's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Hegelmann Litauen
Kauno Žalgiris
Dainava
Banga
Suduva Marijampole
Šiauliai
Džiugas Telšiai
Be1 NFA