This highly anticipated match between TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys is shaping up to be a finely balanced contest, with the away side's recent form note of coming off a draw against Dėlugas Telšiai providing an intriguing storyline. However, it's the home side's 2-game winning run that has sparked concerns about their ability to contain the away side's stronger opponent strength, as evidenced by their average goals conceded on the road.
The model predicts a 41% chance of an away win, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring at a 12% probability. The expected total goals stands at 3.1, with the most likely total goals being 2. The home side has been scoring at an average of 2.58 goals at home and conceding 0.67, while the away side has been scoring 1.0 goal away and conceding 2.0. The model's selection is Over 1.5, occurring at an 82% probability, with a 5% edge. The home win percentage stands at 33%, the draw percentage at 26%, and the away win percentage at 41%. The model's selection, Over 1.5, is the top pick at 82% probability, followed by the Away win at 41% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends their run for Panevėžys, who have now won two consecutive matches. The final score of 0-2 was a correct reflection of the actual result, which saw the away team emerge victorious. The model's selection, an away win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was well-supported, as Panevėžys's recent form showed them coming off a win and having a strong away record. TransINVEST Vilnius's suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit, with a probability of 82.1% and an edge of 5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius win✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.63
Edge
-21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.68
Dafabet
1.67
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.67
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
Pinnacle
3.83
Dafabet
3.80
Superbet
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Panevėžys win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied 20.5% · @ 4.39
Edge
+20.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.62
Dafabet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
0.80
2.14
0.86
3.19
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.62
0.88
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
3.09
0.77
2.45
0.91
3.73
0.64
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.27
1.29
0.93
2.00
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.55
1.20
1.00
1.50
2.10
vs Weaker (10)
2.30
0.70
1.50
0.75
2.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.1%
@ 1.18+5.4%
Under 1.5
17.9%
@ 3.89-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.98
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.0%
@ 1.65+3.6%
Under 2.5
41.0%
@ 2.06-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Under
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.15
SBO
2.14
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
2.08
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.7%
@ 2.62+2.0%
Under 3.5
63.3%
@ 1.39-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.66
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.4%
@ 1.66+7.3%
No
37.6%
@ 2.03-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Unibet
1.66
No
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 6.75+5.7%
1-2
8.8%@ 13.15+5.6%
2-1
7.9%@ 7.22+2.0%
0-1
6.5%@ 12.81+3.1%
2-2
6.4%@ 12.71+3.0%
0-2 ✓
6.1%@ 24.22+4.3%
0-0
5.8%@ 11.91+2.2%
1-0
5.7%@ 7.25-0.2%
TransINVEST Vilnius goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
6.5%
6.1%
3.3%
1.3%
1
5.7%
12%
8.8%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.9%
6.4%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.4%
3.8%
3.1%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys are level in average points per game (both 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys are level in goals scored per game (both 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
TransINVEST Vilnius is 0.25 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.40
1.00
0.43
1.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.38
0.33
0.33
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (22)
1.55
0.41
1.18
0.45
1.91
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.57
0.43
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.75
0.60
0.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.20
0.50
0.25
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.40
1.14
0.43
1.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (22)
1.55
0.36
1.27
0.45
1.82
0.27
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
+5.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
TransINVEST Vilnius's midfield is €1m less valuable than Panevėžys's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TransINVEST Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai