Tre Fiori are favoured to win, with a 54 % chance of taking the match at home, a 26 % chance of a draw and a 20 % chance of Domagnano winning. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 12.3 %. Tre Fiori have been prolific at home, averaging 2.3 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded against weaker opposition, while Domagnano, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.5 %, Under 7.5 at 99.3 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 98.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1 %, Under 6.5 at 97.8 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 96.2 %, Under 5.5 at 94.0 % and Home +2 handicap at 92.5 %. The home side’s recent form shows a 54 % win probability, a 26 % draw probability, and a 20 % away win probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tre Fiori win
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Domagnano win
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.87
2.25
1.00
2.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.38
1.62
1.38
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.65
0.47
2.88
0.62
2.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Domagnano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.37
1.93
1.50
1.81
1.25
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.64
1.00
1.40
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (13)
2.54
1.46
2.50
2.17
2.57
0.86
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.67
2.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.1%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.7%
Tre Fiori goals ↓
Domagnano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.5%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
1
8.6%
11%
5.7%
2.0%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.9%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.8%
6.2%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.7%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Fiori goals (down), columns = Domagnano goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Tre Fiori is 0.86 points better than Domagnano in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Tre Fiori is 0.21 goals better than Domagnano in terms of goals scored per game (2.10 vs 1.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Tre Fiori is 0.82 goals better than Domagnano in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tre Fiori
For 0.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.5 · Against 1.0 · Total 1.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 12.5 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Domagnano
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tre Fiori
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
9.0
4.5
0.2
0.0
0.3
28.0
34.0
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
6.0
9.0
4.5
0.5
0.0
0.9
28.0
34.0
25.0
vs Weaker (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
4%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
100%
96%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (Domagnano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Domagnano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
24.6%
Under 9.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
98.5%
Under 21.5
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tre Fiori or Draw
79.6%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
20%
covers Tre Fiori + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori or Domagnano
75.6%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
20%
covers Tre Fiori + Domagnano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Domagnano
44.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
20%
covers Draw + Domagnano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 0.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tre Fiori, so a minus line means Tre Fiori give that many goals of a start and Domagnano receive them. At -1, Tre Fiori must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tre Fiori win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori -2
15.5%
Draw -2
17.2%
Domagnano +2
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori -1
32.7%
Draw -1
22.5%
Domagnano +1
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori +1
79.6%
Draw +1
12.4%
Domagnano -1
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.6%
Domagnano -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.37
1.12
0.31
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.54
1.12
0.38
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.24
1.12
0.25
1.33
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Domagnano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.82
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.17
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.54
1.17
1.00
1.71
0.14
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.0%
Under 1.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.4%
Under 2.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HT
Over
65.5%
Under
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.69
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.24
1.75
0.38
1.11
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Domagnano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.07
0.93
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.82
0.40
1.00
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.92
1.33
1.17
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.8%
Under 0.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.0%
Under 1.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.6%
Under 2.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2H
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2H
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 19.5 fouls
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.6%
-
-
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Under 2.5 2H goals
78.4%
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-
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Over 0.5 HT goals
77.4%
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-
-
-
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Home or Away
75.6%
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Under 9.5 corners
75.4%
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Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
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Home under 1.5 HT goals
72.0%
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Home over 0.5 2H goals
71.7%
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-
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Home under 2.5 goals
70.6%
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-
-
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Away under 1.5 goals
70.5%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Domagnano have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Domagnano have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Domagnano have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Domagnano have a similar defence value (both €1m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →