Tre Fiori are clear favourites, their home form showing 2.88 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded against weaker opposition, while Fiorentino struggles away, averaging 0.4 goals and conceding 1.2 against stronger teams. The model rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 9%. The most likely result is a 2-0 victory for Tre Fiori, a 15% chance scoreline that also matches the expected total of 2.6 goals. The average goal total is 2.6, with a 26% probability that exactly two goals will be scored. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.8%), Home +2 handicap (97.6%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Home or Draw (90.7%) and Home +1 handicap (90.7%). Recent form shows Tre Fiori coming off a win after a 5-2 victory over Pennarossa, while Fiorentino is on a two-game winning run after a 2-0 win over San Marino Academy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tre Fiori win
68.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino win
9.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.87
2.25
1.00
2.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.38
1.62
1.38
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.65
0.47
2.88
0.62
2.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
0.93
1.86
1.62
1.19
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
2.44
0.80
3.20
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.43
1.62
1.25
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.1%
Under 2.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.6%
No
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.9%
1-0
14.3%
1-1
10.0%
3-0
9.7%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.7%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
4.8%
Tre Fiori goals ↓
Fiorentino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
3.7%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
1
14%
10.0%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.9%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
3
9.7%
5.8%
1.7%
0.3%
0.1%
4
4.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Fiori goals (down), columns = Fiorentino goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Tre Fiori is 1.50 points better than Fiorentino in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Tre Fiori is 0.86 goals better than Fiorentino in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Tre Fiori is 1.79 goals better than Fiorentino in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tre Fiori or Draw
90.5%
Avg Implied -
69%
22%
9%
covers Tre Fiori + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori or Fiorentino
78.3%
Avg Implied -
69%
22%
9%
covers Tre Fiori + Fiorentino
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fiorentino
31.1%
Avg Implied -
69%
22%
9%
covers Draw + Fiorentino
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 3.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tre Fiori, so a minus line means Tre Fiori give that many goals of a start and Fiorentino receive them. At -1, Tre Fiori must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tre Fiori win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori -2
22.2%
Draw -2
21.6%
Fiorentino +2
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori -1
43.8%
Draw -1
25.1%
Fiorentino +1
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori +1
90.5%
Draw +1
7.0%
Fiorentino -1
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori +2
97.6%
Draw +2
2.0%
Fiorentino -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.37
1.12
0.31
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.54
1.12
0.38
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.24
1.12
0.25
1.33
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.43
0.86
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.89
0.60
1.40
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.80
0.43
0.71
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.69
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.24
1.75
0.38
1.11
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.50
1.00
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.56
0.20
1.80
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.57
0.71
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Tre Fiori's squad is €1m more valuable than Fiorentino's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Fiorentino have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Fiorentino have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Fiorentino have a similar defence value (both €1m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →