Defensive solidity will be the focus of this Coppa Titano clash, as both sides have kept clean sheets in recent outings. The model favours a home win, with a 40% chance, a 32% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals hover around 2.1, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability. Tre Fiori’s home form shows an average of 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against similar opposition, while La Fiorita’s away record yields 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (97.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 4.5 (93.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.6% miss), and Home +2 handicap (89.3% miss). The home side’s win probability is 40%, the draw 32%, and the away win 28%.
Results analysis
Tre Fiori finished 1-3 against La Fiorita (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 40% home win, 32% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99%), Away under 3.5 goals (98%), Under 5.5 (98%), Home under 3.5 goals (97%), Under 4.5 (93%). Missed: Away under 2.5 goals (93%), Home +2 handicap (89%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tre Fiori win✗ Miss
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita win✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.43
2.25
0.50
2.00
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
0.55
1.83
0.67
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
2.47
0.37
2.50
0.40
2.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.80
1.80
0.87
1.73
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.00
1.75
1.25
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (21)
2.05
0.71
1.82
0.73
2.30
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.6%
Under 1.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.4%
Under 2.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.1%
Under 3.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.3%
No
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.0%
1-0
12.5%
0-1
9.9%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.4%
Tre Fiori goals ↓
La Fiorita goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.9%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.2%
7.9%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Fiori goals (down), columns = La Fiorita goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
3.00
Virtus
2.43
La Fiorita
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Folgore
1.00
Cosmos
0.50
Murata
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Tre Fiori is 0.32 points worse than La Fiorita in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.67
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.57
San Giovanni
1.00
La Fiorita
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Murata
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Tre Fiori is 0.57 goals better than La Fiorita in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.25
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Murata
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Folgore
1.00
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Pennarossa
1.00
Cosmos
1.50
Fiorentino
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
Tre Fiori is 0.46 goals worse than La Fiorita in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 0.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tre Fiori or Draw✗ Miss
71.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Tre Fiori + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori or La Fiorita✓ Hit
68.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Tre Fiori + La Fiorita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or La Fiorita✓ Hit
60.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Draw + La Fiorita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tre Fiori, so a minus line means Tre Fiori give that many goals of a start and La Fiorita receive them. At -1, Tre Fiori must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tre Fiori win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tre Fiori)Actual: La Fiorita
Tre Fiori -2
5.8%
Draw -2
11.8%
La Fiorita +2
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tre Fiori)Actual: La Fiorita
Tre Fiori -1
17.6%
Draw -1
22.0%
La Fiorita +1
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tre Fiori)Actual: La Fiorita
Tre Fiori +1
71.6%
Draw +1
17.7%
La Fiorita -1
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tre Fiori)Actual: Draw
Tre Fiori +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.8%
La Fiorita -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.20
1.25
0.19
1.14
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.27
1.33
0.33
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (19)
1.26
0.16
1.20
0.10
1.33
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.56
1.50
1.00
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.33
0.55
0.27
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.23
1.00
0.31
0.86
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.27
0.50
0.33
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (19)
1.21
0.21
1.30
0.30
1.11
0.11
Clean sheet %
77% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.00
0.40
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.44
0.25
0.25
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.29
0.38
1.27
0.45
1.30
0.30
Clean sheet %
63% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (31)
€1m
VIR (33)
€1m
LF (33)
€1m
TP (26)
€1m
FOL (28)
€1m
DOM (27)
€1m
FIO (25)
€1m
COS (34)
€1m
J/D (27)
€1m
PEN (31)
€1m
LIB (34)
€1m
SG (27)
€1m
FAE (32)
€1m
CAI (28)
€0m
MUR (35)
€0m
Tre Fiori and La Fiorita have a similar squad value (both €1m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →