Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa Result & Analysis

Tre Fiori are the clear favourites, the model assigning an 82% chance to a home win, a 13% draw and only 6% to Pennarossa. The prediction stems from Tre Fiori’s dominant home form - averaging 2.25 goals scored and just 0.92 conceded against weaker opposition - while Pennarossa, playing away against a stronger side, averages a mere 0.9 goals for and 2.6 against. The expected total is 3.7 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 21%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0, with a 10.7% chance. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (89.2%), Home win (81.6%) and Over 2.5 (71.9%). Tre Fiori’s recent win after a five-match run and Pennarossa’s return from two defeats reinforce the expected outcome. The match is set to see a decisive home victory.

The win extends Tre Fiori’s recent run, keeping their form narrative strong. The model predicted a Home win with an 82% probability, and the result matched that expectation. The final score was 3-0, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s selections performed well: Over 1.5, with an 89.2% chance, hit; Home win, at 81.6%, also hit; and Over 2.5, at 71.9%, hit. All picks settled as predicted, underscoring the model’s accuracy. The match delivered the anticipated 3-goal total, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 or 3-0 both at 10.7% probability, and the 3-goal outcome fitting the 3-goal expectation. The predictions were spot on.