Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa Result & Analysis

Tre Fiori are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 76% chance of a home win and picking that result as the most likely outcome. Their recent 5-game run, highlighted by a 5-2 win over Pennarossa, shows they are coming off a victory and have been prolific at home, scoring an average of 2.33 goals while conceding only 0.78. Pennarossa, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded against stronger opponents. The expected total goals for the match is 2.7, with the most probable scoreline being 2-0 for Tre Fiori at 16.3%. The model’s home win probability is 76%, the draw probability 18%, and the away win probability 6%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.8%, Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Home +2 handicap at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.6%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Under 5.5 at 94.1%, Home or Draw at 93.9%, and Home +1 handicap at 93.9%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability.

Tre Fiori’s win extends their recent run, ending a five-match sequence with a victory over Pennarossa. The model’s favourite, a home win at 76%, proved correct as the final score was 3-0, confirming the predicted outcome. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 was close, but the actual result still fell within the model’s top three possibilities. Every suggested selection hit: Away under 3.5 goals at 99.8%, Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Home +2 handicap at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.6%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Under 5.5 at 94.1%, Home or Draw at 93.9%, and Home +1 handicap at 93.9%. The model’s predictions were remarkably accurate across the board.