The match between Tre Fiori and Virtus is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, but the most probable total is two goals, with a 26 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 13.6 % probability.
Tre Fiori, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Virtus, on the road against a similar side, averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The home win probability sits at 34 %, the draw at 28 %, and the away win at 38 %.
The model’s selections include: Over 19.5 fouls99.5 %, Under 7.599.4 %, Over 21.5 fouls98.5 %, Under 6.598.1 %, Over 23.5 fouls96.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals95.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals94.9 %, and Under 5.594.6 %. Each selection is listed with its exact probability, reflecting the high confidence in these outcomes.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tre Fiori win
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Virtus win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.87
2.25
1.00
2.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.38
1.62
1.38
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.65
0.47
2.88
0.62
2.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.73
2.40
0.53
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
2.86
0.62
2.91
0.55
2.80
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.8%
1-0
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
6.0%
Tre Fiori goals ↓
Virtus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
7.1%
6.0%
3.0%
1.1%
1
6.8%
13%
8.5%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.2%
6.0%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.6%
3.9%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Fiori goals (down), columns = Virtus goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Tre Fiori is 0.09 points better than Virtus in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 2.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Tre Fiori is 0.27 goals worse than Virtus in terms of goals scored per game (2.10 vs 2.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Tre Fiori is 0.25 goals better than Virtus in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 0.69).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tre Fiori
For 0.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.5 · Against 1.0 · Total 1.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 12.5 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Virtus
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tre Fiori
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
9.0
4.5
0.2
0.0
0.3
28.0
34.0
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
6.0
9.0
4.5
0.5
0.0
0.9
28.0
34.0
25.0
vs Weaker (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
4%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
100%
96%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
24.6%
Under 9.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
98.5%
Under 21.5
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tre Fiori or Draw
62.4%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Tre Fiori + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori or Virtus
72.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Tre Fiori + Virtus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Virtus
64.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Draw + Virtus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tre Fiori, so a minus line means Tre Fiori give that many goals of a start and Virtus receive them. At -1, Tre Fiori must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tre Fiori win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori -2
6.2%
Draw -2
10.6%
Virtus +2
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori -1
16.8%
Draw -1
18.4%
Virtus +1
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori +1
62.4%
Draw +1
19.1%
Virtus -1
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tre Fiori)
Tre Fiori +2
81.5%
Draw +2
11.5%
Virtus -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.37
1.12
0.31
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.54
1.12
0.38
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.24
1.12
0.25
1.33
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.20
0.13
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.89
0.50
0.25
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.24
0.24
1.45
0.09
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.69
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.24
1.75
0.38
1.11
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.30
1.20
0.40
1.27
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.11
0.50
0.25
0.20
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
0.38
1.45
0.45
1.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 19.5 fouls
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Virtus have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Virtus have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Virtus have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Tre Fiori and Virtus have a similar defence value (both €1m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata